Alerts from NASA's DONKI Early Warning System (Space Weather, Sun)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: FLR
Message ID: 20260203-AL-007
Issue Time: 2026-02-03T15:12Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.2 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-03T15:12:11Z
## Message ID: 20260203-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-03T14:45Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-03T14:56Z.
Flare intensity: M7.2 class.
Source region: N15E17 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-03T15:02:31Z
## Message ID: 20260203-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-03T14:55Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.5 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-03T14:18:15Z
## Message ID: 20260203-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-03T13:58Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-03T14:08Z.
Flare intensity: X1.5 class.
Source region: N14E13 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-03T14:14:30Z
## Message ID: 20260203-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-03T14:07Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.2 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-03T12:07:38Z
## Message ID: 20260203-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-03T06:43Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-03T07:01Z.
Flare intensity: M7.2 class.
Source region: N14E17 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-03T07:04:25Z
## Message ID: 20260203-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-03T07:00Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-03T02:10:09Z
## Message ID: 20260203-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260202-AL-012). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 28 ensemble members (see notes section), 25 (89%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-02-04T19:00Z and 2026-02-05T14:25Z (average arrival 2026-02-05T01:09Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 86% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052_Earth_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001) was also predicted to impact Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-03T17:23Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-02-05T06:00Z (glancing blow), and STEREO A at 2026-02-05T10:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260202-AL-012).
This CME event (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001) is associated with the X8.1 flare from AR 14366 (N13E35) with ID 2026-02-01T23:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-02-01T23:57Z (see notifications 20260202-AL-001, 20260202-AL-002) and possibly the X2.8 flare from AR 14366 (N13E35) with ID 2026-02-02T00:31:00-FLR-001 (see notifications 20260202-AL-003, 20260202-AL-004).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M SWAO is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/Detailed_results_20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T16:46:30Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-012
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-02-02T00:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~587 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -14/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-03T17:23Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-02-05T06:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-02-05T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-02-04T21:32Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001) is associated with the X8.1 flare from AR 14366 (N13E35) with ID 2026-02-01T23:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-02-01T23:57Z (see notifications 20260202-AL-001, 20260202-AL-002).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T14:27:58Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-011
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-02-02T08:40Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-01-29T14:30Z are caused by the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-01-28, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 750 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 300 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.7 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T12:21:27Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-010
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-02T11:15Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-02T11:24Z.
Flare intensity: M6.7 class.
Source region: N14E29 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.6 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T12:20:02Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-02T07:39Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-02T08:14Z.
Flare intensity: X1.6 class.
Source region: N14E30 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T11:26:09Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-02T11:21Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T08:00:06Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-02T07:55Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M5.2 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T03:06:13Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-02T02:45Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-02T02:51Z.
Flare intensity: M5.2 class.
Source region: N13E35 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T02:54:01Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-02T02:49Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X2.8 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T00:57:44Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-02T00:31Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-02T00:36Z.
Flare intensity: X2.8 class.
Source region: N13E35 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T00:41:59Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-02T00:34Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X8.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T00:11:08Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-01T23:44Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-01T23:57Z.
Flare intensity: X8.1 class.
Source region: N13E35 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-02T00:01:59Z
## Message ID: 20260202-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-01T23:53Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M5.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T16:30:40Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-011
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-01T15:57Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-01T16:05Z.
Flare intensity: M5.1 class.
Source region: N15E42 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T16:25:53Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-010
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-01T16:05Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M5.8 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T13:38:03Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-01T12:44Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-01T12:50Z.
Flare intensity: M5.8 class.
Source region: N13E41 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.0 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T13:35:31Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-01T12:25Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-01T12:33Z.
Flare intensity: X1.0 class.
Source region: N13E42 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.7 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T13:31:09Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-01T11:52Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-01T12:12Z.
Flare intensity: M6.7 class.
Source region: N13E42 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.6 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T13:28:02Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-02-01T09:53Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-02-01T10:02Z.
Flare intensity: M6.6 class.
Source region: N13E43 (Active Region 14366) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T12:55:50Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-01T12:48Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T12:55:50Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-01T12:31Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T12:17:49Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-01T12:11Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T10:05:47Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-02-01T10:01Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-01T01:53:19Z
## Message ID: 20260201-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-31T19:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~576 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 142/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-31T19:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2026-02-05T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-31T19:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-31T19:46:07Z
## Message ID: 20260131-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-31T14:45Z.
Estimated speed: ~555 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 26/28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-31T14:45:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-02-03T10:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-02T14:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-02-03T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-31T14:45:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Europa Clipper, Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-31T19:07:14Z
## Message ID: 20260131-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-31T05:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1027 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 107/-8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-31T05:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice, STEREO A (glancing blow), Europa Clipper and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2026-02-03T05:24Z and Europa Clipper at 2026-02-05T16:49Z, and its flank will reach STEREO A at 2026-02-03T06:00Z and Lucy at 2026-02-11T12:00Z, (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-31T05:12:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260131_091100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260131_091100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260131_091100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260131_091100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2026-01-31T05:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.0 flare from Active Region 14351 (S04W107) with ID 2026-01-31T04:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-31T05:12Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-31T14:12:39Z
## Message ID: 20260131-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, most recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-01-28T23:35Z.
The currently observed elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-01-28, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 750 km/s, has further enhanced the electron fluxes. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 430 km/s.
The arrival of the CME with ID 2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260118-AL-005, 20260119-AL-001, 20260119-AL-004, and 20260119-AL-005) had previously enhanced the electron fluxes starting at 2026-01-21T09:30Z (see notifications 20260121-AL-004, 20260123-AL-002, 20260125-AL-001, 20260127-AL-001 and 20260129-AL-001).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
