Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20250828-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-08-28T18:57Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-08-28T18:57:47Z
## Message ID: 20250828-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2025-08-27T20:38Z.
Estimated speed: ~617 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -15/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-08-27T20:38:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-08-30T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-08-31T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-08-27T20:38:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250828_015000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250828_015000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250828_015000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250828_015000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
Message Type: Report
Message ID: 20250827-7D-001
Issue Time: 2025-08-27T19:15Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for August 20, 2025 - August 26, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-08-27T19:15:54Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-08-20T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-08-26T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250827-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached moderate levels during this reporting period with 11 M-class flares, 4 O-type CMEs, and 23 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CME is predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-08-25T09:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-08-28T08:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notification 20250825-AL-005).
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-08-20T03:24Z BepiColombo at 2025-08-20T16:34Z, Juice at 2025-08-22T02:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-08-22T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250820-AL-002).
2025-08-20T05:12Z Psyche at 2025-08-25T04:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-08-29T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-08-23T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250820-AL-001).
2025-08-21T08:23Z Psyche at 2025-08-26T18:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-08-27T08:11Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-08-25T07:30Z, Mars at 2025-08-24T00:21Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-08-22T00:41Z (see notifications 20250821-AL-001, 20250821-AL-002).
2025-08-22T05:48Z Psyche at 2025-08-30T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250822-AL-001).
2025-08-22T19:30Z Lucy at 2025-09-01T00:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-08-28T00:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-08-29T18:50Z, Mars at 2025-08-26T19:54Z (see notification 20250822-AL-002).
2025-08-23T02:23Z BepiColombo at 2025-08-24T02:00Z (glancing blow), Juice at 2025-08-25T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250823-AL-001).
2025-08-24T10:36Z Psyche at 2025-08-31T06:00Z (minor impact), Mars at 2025-08-29T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250824-AL-005).
2025-08-24T23:00Z Psyche at 2025-09-01T00:00Z (minor impact), Mars at 2025-08-29T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250825-AL-001).
2025-08-25T09:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-08-28T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250825-AL-005).
2025-08-26T01:25Z Psyche at 2025-09-01T12:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20250826-AL-003).
2025-08-26T14:09Z Psyche at 2025-09-01T12:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20250826-AL-006).
Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 4.00 for the reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-08-21T17:10Z (see notifications 20250821-AL-003, 20250821-AL-004, 20250823-AL-002, and 20250824-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE at L1 on 2025-08-18. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated above threshold until 2025-08-25.
A solar energetic particle event was detected by SOHO and GOES during the reporting period. At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-08-24T17:20Z (see notification 20250824-AL-004). At GOES, the integral flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-08-25T13:20Z and was further enhanced again at 2025-08-26T12:10Z (see notifications 20250825-AL-002, 20250825-AL-003, 20250826-AL-001, and 20250826-AL-002). The energetic proton flux of 13-100 MeV protons detected at STEREO A was elevated but below threshold starting on 2025-08-22. This SEP event was likely associated with the O-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2025-08-21T08:23Z. The integral flux of the > 10 MeV protons at GOES and the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle event and elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-08-22 17:56:00 19:05:00 18:59:00 M1.7 S17E90 ( 14197 )
2025-08-23 19:53:00 20:16:00 20:06:00 M1.9 S15E90 ( 14197 )
2025-08-24 08:26:00 08:42:00 08:36:00 M1.3 N07E90 ( 14199 )
2025-08-25 05:01:00 05:40:00 05:24:00 M4.5 N05E90 ( 14199 )
2025-08-25 09:04:00 09:09:00 09:07:00 M1.0 S17E61 ( 14197 )
2025-08-25 15:06:00 15:28:00 15:18:00 M1.2 N04E87 ( 14199 )
2025-08-25 15:30:00 15:41:00 15:38:00 M1.1 N06E90 ( 14199 )
2025-08-26 00:22:00 00:35:00 00:30:00 M3.3 N02E80 ( 14199 )
2025-08-26 05:09:00 05:40:00 05:25:00 M4.5 S20E50 ( 14197 )
2025-08-26 07:13:00 07:29:00 07:22:00 M1.0 N00E80
2025-08-26 13:39:00 14:32:00 14:07:00 M1.0 S18E70 ( 14202 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-08-25T09:36Z ~635 C 0/-37 21 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-08-20T03:24Z ~1203 O 70/14 10 SOHO
2025-08-20T05:12Z ~1019 O -93/-41 45 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-20T10:24Z ~590 C -59/-62 33 STEREO A
2025-08-21T08:23Z ~1657 O -142/19 52 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-08-21T11:36Z ~1038 O -156/44 20 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-21T14:00Z ~958 C -149/41 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-21T16:12Z ~583 C -144/51 17 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-21T16:24Z ~827 C NONE(POS)/29 22 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-08-22T05:24Z ~812 C -41/-54 31 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-22T05:48Z ~627 C -53/-34 31 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-22T19:30Z ~737 C -95/-15 45 GOES, STEREO A
2025-08-23T02:23Z ~883 C 136/1 18 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-08-23T18:36Z ~649 C -92/1 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-24T02:36Z ~705 C -131/76 18 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-24T10:36Z ~657 C -91/29 23 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-24T18:12Z ~626 C -80/53 14 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-24T23:00Z ~759 C -92/-3 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-25T02:48Z ~659 C NONE(POS)/-10 17 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-25T03:48Z ~934 C NONE(POS)/32 10 SOHO, GOES
2025-08-25T04:48Z ~570 C -80/3 20 SOHO
2025-08-25T05:36Z ~856 C NONE(POS)/42 18 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-26T00:12Z ~601 C -64/67 19 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-26T01:25Z ~638 C -85/5 14 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-08-26T14:09Z ~843 C -59/-9 27 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-08-26T14:23Z ~896 C -92/60 34 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-08-26T21:36Z ~510 C -58/16 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-08-27T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-09-02T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently twelve Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14197 (S17E30) and Active Region 14199 (N04E49) produced M-class flaring throughout the reporting period and may continue to exhibit notable flaring activity as they continue to traverse the Earth-facing disk.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to minor levels during the outlook period. A minor enhancement in geomagnetic activity may be possible on 2025-08-28 due to a predicted glancing blow from the C-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2025-08-25T09:36Z. A small coronal hole centered around latitude S05 (as seen in available EUV imagery from SDO/AIA) crossed the central meridian on 2025-08-27 and may reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2025-08-31.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
