Alerts from NASA's DONKI Early Warning System (Space Weather, Sun)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: RBE
Message ID: 20260213-AL-002
Issue Time: 2026-02-13T18:07Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
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## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-13T18:07:14Z
## Message ID: 20260213-AL-002
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-02-13T17:45Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels (see notifications 20260207-AL-001, 20260207-AL-002, 20260209-AL-001, 20260211-AL-001) observed since 2026-02-07T13:25Z are caused by the arrival of CME with ID 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 and the coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2026-02-05, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 650 km/s (see notifications 20260202-AL-012, 20260203-AL-001). The solar wind speed at L1 is currently around 420 km/s. The arrival of the CME with ID 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2026-02-04T14:20Z (see notification 20260204-AL-004).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2026-02-07T13:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
Simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2026-02-05T03:55Z due to the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260205-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-13T13:11:18Z
## Message ID: 20260213-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2026-02-13T09:38Z.
Estimated speed: ~800 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 16/31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-02-13T09:38:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-02-16T16:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-14T14:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-02-16T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-02-15T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-02-13T09:38:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-02-13T09:38:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.0 flare with ID 2026-02-13T08:28:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14373 (N10W15) which peaked at 2026-02-13T08:58Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-12T15:07:58Z
## Message ID: 20260212-AL-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2026-02-12T15:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for February 04, 2026 - February 10, 2026
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-11T20:25:25Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2026-02-04T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2026-02-10T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20260211-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached high levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 29 M-class flares, and 17 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-02-05T15:48Z NASA missions near Earth at at 2026-02-08T08:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notification 20260205-AL-002).
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-02-04T12:30Z BepiColombo at 2026-02-05T14:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260204-AL-005).
2026-02-05T13:26Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-07T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260205-AL-003).
2026-02-05T15:48Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-06T22:49Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-02-08T12:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-02-08T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260205-AL-002).
2026-02-05T20:00Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-07T06:31Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-02-08T18:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-02-08T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260206-AL-001).
2026-02-05T23:24Z BepiColombo at 2026-02-06T19:27Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-02-07T16:12Z, Mars at 2026-02-10T04:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-02-10T09:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260206-AL-002).
2026-02-07T21:36Z Parker Solar Probe at 2026-02-09T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260208-AL-001).
2026-02-07T23:00Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-02-11T14:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-02-11T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260208-AL-002).
2026-02-09T23:24Z BepiColombo at 2026-02-10T15:25Z (see notification 20260210-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.33 occurred during the synoptic period of 2026-02-05T03:00Z to 2026-02-05T06:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-02-04T14:20Z (see notification 20260204-AL-004) which was associated with the arrival of the C-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2026-02-02T00:48Z. Simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2026-02-05T03:55Z (see notification 20260205-AL-001).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained elevated above the threshold level of 1000 pfu at the beginning of the reporting period due to an enhancement from the previous reporting period starting at 2026-01-29T14:30Z (see notifications 20260131-AL-001, 20260202-AL-011, 20260204-AL-003). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR starting on 2026-01-28. This event was preceded by a radiation belt enhancement first observed at 2026-01-21T09:30Z (see notifications 20260121-AL-004, 20260123-AL-002, 20260125-AL-001, 20260127-AL-001, 20260129-AL-001) which was associated with arrival of the O-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-01-18T18:09Z as detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-01-19T18:55Z (see notification 20260119-AL-005). The
The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux levels crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu again at 2026-02-07T13:25Z (see notifications 20260207-AL-001, 20260207-AL-002, 20260209-AL-001, 20260211-AL-001). This subsequent elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-02-04T14:20Z (see notification 20260204-AL-004) which was associated with the arrival of the C-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2026-02-02T00:48Z. Additional enhancements may have been caused by the coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2026-02-05. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-02-05T15:48Z ~830 C 14/-36 28 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-02-04T12:24Z ~567 C -61/-23 19 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-02-04T12:30Z ~513 C -68/14 30 GOES, SOHO, STEREO A
2026-02-04T14:36Z ~856 C -31/29 11 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-02-05T04:36Z ~944 C 65/25 11 SOHO
2026-02-05T13:26Z ~653 C 23/-40 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-02-05T20:00Z ~722 C 25/-42 30 SOHO, STEREO A
2026-02-05T23:24Z ~691 C -155/12 51 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-06T23:24Z ~644 C NONE(POS)/-14 22 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-07T03:36Z ~698 C NONE(POS)/6 14 SOHO
2026-02-07T21:36Z ~881 C -145/37 28 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-07T21:48Z ~676 C NONE(POS)/51 28 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-07T23:00Z ~546 C 60/38 25 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-08T15:00Z ~721 C NONE(POS)/4 22 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-08T23:12Z ~626 C NONE(POS)/-3 10 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-09T23:24Z ~727 C -75/-6 10 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-10T19:38Z ~537 C 90/-44 10 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2026-02-11T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-02-17T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently seven numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14366 (N14W95) produced most of the significant flaring activity during the reporting period before rotating off the Earth-facing disk on 2026-02-11 and may produce far-sided activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES remained elevated through the end of the reporting period due to a threshold crossing starting at 2026-02-07T13:25Z (see notifications 20260207-AL-001, 20260207-AL-002, 20260209-AL-001, 20260211-AL-001) and may continue to be elevated during the outlook period. An equatorial coronal hole located on the eastern half of the disk (as seen in available imagery from SDO/AIA 193) is expected to begin crossing the central meridian starting on or around 2026-02-13.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-11T17:57:59Z
## Message ID: 20260211-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux first crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2026-02-07T13:25Z. The most recent crossing of the 1000 pfu threshold was at 2026-02-10T12:05Z and the fluxes are currently elevated but below the threshold.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels (see notifications 20260207-AL-001, 20260207-AL-002, 20260209-AL-001) are caused by the arrival of CME with ID 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 and the coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2026-02-05, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 650 km/s (see notifications 20260202-AL-012, 20260203-AL-001). The solar wind speed at L1 is currently around 450 km/s. The arrival of the CME with ID 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2026-02-04T14:20Z (see notification 20260204-AL-004).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2026-02-07T13:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
Simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2026-02-05T03:55Z due to the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260205-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-10T14:10:06Z
## Message ID: 20260210-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-02-09T23:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~727 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -75/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-02-09T23:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2026-02-10T15:25Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-02-09T23:24:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-02-09T23:24:00-CME-001) is associated with C9.2 flare from Active Region 14374 (N10E75) with ID 2026-02-09T22:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-02-09T23:02Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
