Alerts from NASA's DONKI Early Warning System (Space Weather, Sun)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20260101-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-01-01T01:57Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-01T01:57:13Z
## Message ID: 20260101-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-12-31T14:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251231-AL-004). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 22 (91%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-01-02T14:44Z and 2026-01-03T04:25Z (average arrival 2026-01-02T21:21Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 87% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-12-31T14:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-02T11:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-02T22:00Z, STEREO A at 2026-01-03T13:00Z, and Juno at 2026-01-15T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20251231-AL-004).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/Detailed_results_20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for December 24, 2025 - December 30, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-31T19:06:42Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-12-24T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-12-30T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20251231-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached moderate levels during this reporting period with 5 M-class flares, 1 O-type CME, and 11 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-12-28T23:00Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-12-31T22:04Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notifications 20251229-AL-001, 20251229-AL-002).
Ensemble: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/Detailed_results_20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089.txt
2025-12-30T07:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-01-01T23:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 2-4 (below minor)
(see notification 20251230-AL-002).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-12-26T14:23Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-12-27T13:06Z, Mars at 2025-12-30T02:00Z (minor impact), Psyche at 2025-12-30T18:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20251226-AL-001).
2025-12-28T23:00Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-31T09:35Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-31T11:12Z, STEREO A at 2025-12-31T15:31Z, Juno at 2026-01-14T10:00Z (minor impact) (see notifications 20251229-AL-001, 20251229-AL-002).
2025-12-29T20:36Z STEREO A at 2026-01-01T04:31Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-01T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251229-AL-003).
2025-12-30T07:00Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-12-31T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251230-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4.33 for the reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained elevated above the threshold level of 1000 pfu during the reporting period due to an enhancement starting around 2025-12-23T08:55Z (see notifications 20251224-AL-001, 20251226-AL-002, 20251228-AL-001, 20251230-AL-03). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-12-21. This event was preceded by a radiation belt enhancement first observed at 2025-12-16T18:15Z which was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-12-12 (see notifications 20251216-AL-001, 20251216-AL-002, 20251218-AL-001, 20251220-AL-001, 20251222-AL-001).
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at near background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-12-28T23:00Z ~521 C 27/10 41 SOHO, GOES
2025-12-30T07:23Z ~937 C -41/19 27 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-12-26T12:00Z ~816 C NONE(POS)/36 10 SOHO, GOES
2025-12-26T14:23Z ~742 C -161/-19 25 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-12-27T14:48Z ~1040 O NONE(POS)/54 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-27T16:36Z ~893 C 84/29 12 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-28T13:22Z ~819 C 83/30 17 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-29T09:48Z ~618 C NONE(POS)/-8 20 SOHO, GOES
2025-12-29T15:36Z ~603 C -75/-17 21 SOHO, GOES
2025-12-29T18:48Z ~538 C -65/59 40 SOHO, GOES
2025-12-29T20:36Z ~706 C 63/-4 20 SOHO, GOES
2025-12-30T07:00Z ~967 C -107/-10 22 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-12-31T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-01-06T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently seven numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 14325 (S08E06) and 14324 (N24E11) produced M-class flares during the reporting period, and Active Region 14324 produced an M7.1 flare during the outlook period on 2025-12-31. Both regions may continue to produce similar levels of flaring activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between minor and strong levels during the outlook period due to the anticipated arrivals of the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-12-28T23:00Z associated with the M4.2 flare from Active Region 14317 (N08W28) peaking at 2025-12-28T22:39Z and the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-12-31T14:00Z associated with the M7.1 flare from Active Region 14324 (N24E20) peaking at 2025-12-31T13:51Z. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES exceeded the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2025-12-23T08:55Z (see notifications 20251224-AL-001, 20251226-AL-002, 20251228-AL-001, 20251230-AL-03) and may continue to be elevated during the outlook period due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE on 2025-12-21 during the previous reporting period. A coronal hole currently centered near N15W40 (as seen in available imagery from SDO AIA 193) may reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2025-12-31.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-31T17:02:41Z
## Message ID: 20251231-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-31T14:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~886 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -24/19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-31T14:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (minor impact), Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2026-01-15T00:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-02T11:21Z. The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-02T22:00Z and STEREO A at 2026-01-03T13:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-02T21:29Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-31T14:00:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251231_175300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251231_175300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251231_175300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-12-31T14:00:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.1 flare with ID 2025-12-31T13:12:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14324 (N24E20) which peaked at 2025-12-31T13:51Z (see notifications 20251231-AL-002 and 20251231-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-31T13:58:38Z
## Message ID: 20251231-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-12-31T13:12Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-12-31T13:51Z.
Flare intensity: M7.1 class.
Source region: N24E20 (Active Region 14324) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-31T13:46:55Z
## Message ID: 20251231-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-12-31T13:43Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-31T13:09:27Z
## Message ID: 20251231-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-31T04:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~922 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 127/25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-31T04:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2026-01-01T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-31T04:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-30T19:52:48Z
## Message ID: 20251230-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux first crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2025-12-23T08:55Z. The most recent crossing of the 1000 pfu threshold was at 2025-12-30T06:05Z and the fluxes are currently elevated but below the threshold.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels (see notifications 20251224-AL-001, 20251226-AL-002, 20251228-AL-001) are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-12-21, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 800km/s. Solar wind speeds are currently around 400km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-12-23T08:55:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
This ongoing event is preceded by a radiation belt enhancement first observed at 2025-12-16T18:15Z which is associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-12-12 (see notifications 20251216-AL-001, 20251216-AL-002, 20251218-AL-001, 20251220-AL-001, 20251222-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-30T19:46:07Z
## Message ID: 20251230-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-30T07:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~937 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -41/19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-30T07:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME might have a cursory glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-01T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-30T07:23:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-12-30T07:23:00-CME-001) may be associated with C3.5 flare from Active Region 14324 (N24E39) with ID 2025-12-30T05:41:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-12-30T06:31Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-30T18:32:29Z
## Message ID: 20251230-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-30T07:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~967 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -107/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-30T07:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-12-31T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-30T07:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-29T23:57:12Z
## Message ID: 20251229-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-29T20:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~706 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 63/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-29T20:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2026-01-01T04:31Z and the flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-01T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-29T20:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-29T23:15:04Z
## Message ID: 20251229-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251229-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2025-12-31T10:38Z and 2025-12-31T16:08Z (average arrival 2025-12-31T13:40Z) for 29% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-12-31T15:40Z and 2026-01-01T01:53Z (average arrival 2025-12-31T21:18Z) for 75% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 61% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
The CME with ID (2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Juno at 2026-01-14T10:00Z (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-31T09:35Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-31T11:12Z, and STEREO A at 2025-12-31T15:31Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20251229-AL-001).
This CME (2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001) is associated with an M4.2 flare from Active Region 14317 (N08W28) with ID 2025-12-28T22:01:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-12-28T22:39Z.
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-29_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089/Detailed_results_20251228_230000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA089.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-29T02:37:17Z
## Message ID: 20251229-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-28T23:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~521 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 27/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2026-01-14T10:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-31T09:35Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-31T11:12Z, and STEREO A at 2025-12-31T15:31Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-12-31T20:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.2 flare from N08W28 with ID 2025-12-28T22:01:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-12-28T22:39Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
