NOAK Observatory L02

Message Type: RBE

Message ID: 20260129-AL-001

Issue Time: 2026-01-29T13:40Z

Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-29T13:40:14Z
## Message ID: 20260129-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## Summary:

Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-01-28T23:35Z.

The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-01-21T09:30Z (see notifications 20260121-AL-004, 20260123-AL-002, 20260125-AL-001 and 20260127-AL-001) are caused by the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260118-AL-005, 20260119-AL-001, 20260119-AL-004, and 20260119-AL-005).

NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.

Activity ID: 2026-01-21T09:30:00-RBE-001.

## Notes:

The arrival of this CME was associated with a severe geomagnetic storm with ID 2026-01-19T18:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20260119-AL-007, 20260120-AL-001, 20260120-AL-002, and 20260121-AL-001). Additionally, simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2026-01-19T22:49Z (see notification 20260119-AL-008).

URL: View Details

Message Type: Report

Message ID: 20260128-7D-001

Issue Time: 2026-01-28T20:05Z

Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for January 21, 2026 - January 27, 2026
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-28T20:05:08Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2026-01-21T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2026-01-27T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20260128-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## Summary:

Solar activity reached moderate levels during this reporting period with 2 M-class flares, 2 O-type CMEs, and 18 C-type CMEs (see details below).

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:

CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-01-23T03:00Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-24T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260123-AL-003).
2026-01-23T15:12Z BepiColombo at 2026-01-24T15:06Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-01-25T15:48Z, Psyche at 2026-01-29T02:00Z (minor impact), Mars at 2026-01-28T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260123-AL-004).
2026-01-23T17:12Z BepiColombo at 2026-01-24T22:19Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-01-26T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260124-AL-001).
2026-01-23T22:28Z BepiColombo at 2026-01-24T20:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2026-01-25T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260124-AL-002).
2026-01-24T09:24Z BepiColombo at 2026-01-25T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260124-AL-003).
2026-01-24T09:48Z BepiColombo at 2026-01-25T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260124-AL-003).
2026-01-24T10:53Z BepiColombo at 2026-01-25T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2026-01-29T03:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2026-01-26T14:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-01-30T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260124-AL-004).
2026-01-25T12:00Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-28T04:00Z (minor impact), Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-27T06:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-01-28T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260125-AL-002).
2026-01-25T20:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-28T15:32Z, STEREO A at 2026-01-28T08:14Z (see notification 20260126-AL-001).
2026-01-25T21:48Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-28T15:32Z, STEREO A at 2026-01-28T08:14Z (see notification 20260126-AL-001).

Geomagnetic activity was at strong levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 7.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 7.33 occurred during the synoptic period of 2026-01-21T00:00Z to 2026-01-21T03:00Z (see notifications 20260119-AL-007, 20260120-AL-001, 20260120-AL-002, 20260121-AL-001). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR during the previous reporting period at 2026-01-19T18:55Z (see notification 20260119-AL-005) which was associated with the arrival of the O-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-01-18T18:09Z.

The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu starting at 2026-01-21T09:30Z (see notifications 20260121-AL-004, 20260123-AL-002, 20260125-AL-001, 20260127-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of the O-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-01-18T18:09Z as detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-01-19T18:55Z (see notification 20260119-AL-005). The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated above background levels through the end of the reporting period.

A solar energetic particle event was detected by STEREO A during the reporting period. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2026-01-21T03:00Z (see notifications 20260121-AL-002, 20260121-AL-003, 20260122-AL-001, 20260123-AL-001). This SEP event was associated with the arrival detected by STEREO A IMPACT/PLASTIC at 2026-01-21T03:04Z of the O-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-01-18T18:09Z which was associated with the X1.9 flare peaking at 2026-01-18T18:09Z from Active Region 14341. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels detected at SOHO and the energetic integral proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES remained elevated above their respective thresholds at the beginning of the reporting period due to a threshold crossing starting on 2026-01-18 from the previous reporting period. The energetic proton fluxes at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A returned to near background levels by the end of the reporting period.

Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been high this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle event and elevated energetic electron flux in the Earths outer radiation belt described above.

##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2026-01-21 01:15:00 01:58:00 01:41:00 M1.1 S15W08 ( 14345 )
2026-01-21 06:53:00 07:22:00 07:12:00 M3.4 S17E60 ( 14349 )

CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
NONE

Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-01-22T02:36Z ~881 C -21/40 17 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-22T06:24Z ~556 C -13/55 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-22T07:00Z ~675 C -5/30 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-23T03:00Z ~659 C 3/24 12 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-23T15:12Z ~687 C -172/-36 41 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-23T15:38Z ~1184 O -22/26 11 STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-23T17:12Z ~520 C -121/-25 45 SOHO, GOES
2026-01-23T22:28Z ~987 C -149/-54 38 SOHO, GOES
2026-01-24T08:12Z ~597 C -119/-51 14 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-24T09:23Z ~1243 O -7/35 11 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-24T09:24Z ~554 C -90/0 33 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-24T09:48Z ~519 C -80/16 19 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-24T10:53Z ~664 C -178/-46 42 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2026-01-24T20:00Z ~541 C NONE(POS)/1 14 SOHO, GOES
2026-01-25T12:00Z ~571 C 27/-3 10 SOHO, GOES
2026-01-25T19:48Z ~599 C -55/29 31 SOHO, GOES
2026-01-25T20:12Z ~648 C 66/-2 30 SOHO, GOES
2026-01-26T04:36Z ~856 C 13/32 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-26T17:15Z ~633 C NONE(POS)/-14 11 GOES
2026-01-27T10:36Z ~582 C -114/-58 17 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES

## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2026-01-28T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-02-03T23:59Z

Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently ten numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14349 (S14W45) produced C-class and M-class flaring activity during the reporting period and may continue to produce similar levels of flaring activity during the outlook period.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. An equatorial coronal hole (as seen in available EUV imagery from SDO/AIA 193) crossed the central meridian on 2026-01-24 and may reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2026-01-28. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES exceeded the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2026-01-21T09:30Z (see notifications 20260121-AL-004, 20260123-AL-002, 20260125-AL-001, 20260127-AL-001) and may continue to be elevated during the outlook period.

## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

URL: View Details

Message Type: CME

Message ID: 20260128-AL-001

Issue Time: 2026-01-28T14:07Z

URL: View Details

GIFs:

Message Type: RBE

Message ID: 20260127-AL-001

Issue Time: 2026-01-27T13:31Z

Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-27T13:31:13Z
## Message ID: 20260127-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## Summary:

Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated above the threshold of 1000 pfu since 2026-01-24T09:40Z.

The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-01-21T09:30Z (see notifications 20260121-AL-004, 20260123-AL-002 and 20260125-AL-001) are caused by the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260118-AL-005, 20260119-AL-001, 20260119-AL-004, and 20260119-AL-005).

NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.

Activity ID: 2026-01-21T09:30:00-RBE-001.

## Notes:

The arrival of this CME was associated with a severe geomagnetic storm with ID 2026-01-19T18:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20260119-AL-007, 20260120-AL-001, 20260120-AL-002, and 20260121-AL-001). Additionally, simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2026-01-19T22:49Z (see notification 20260119-AL-008).

URL: View Details

Message Type: CME

Message ID: 20260126-AL-001

Issue Time: 2026-01-26T03:33Z

Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-26T03:33:50Z
## Message ID: 20260126-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.

Start time of the event: 2026-01-25T20:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~648 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 66/-2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2026-01-25T20:12:00-CME-001

2: S-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.

Start time of the event: 2026-01-25T21:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~493 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 70/15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2026-01-25T21:48:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact OSIRIS-APEX and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-28T15:32Z and STEREO A at 2026-01-28T08:14Z (plus minus 7 hours).

Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2026-01-25T20:12:00-CME-001, 2026-01-25T21:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260126_013600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260126_013600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260126_013600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260126_013600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260126_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260126_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260126_013600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

## Notes:

This CME event (2026-01-25T20:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C3.1 flare from Active Region 14345 (S16W66) with ID 2026-01-25T19:06:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-25T20:25Z.

This CME event (2026-01-25T21:48:00-CME-001) is associated with C7.9 flare from Active Region 14342 (N18W70) with ID 2026-01-25T21:36:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-25T21:43Z.

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

URL: View Details

GIFs:

NOAK Observatory (L02)

Alerts from NASA's DONKI Early Warning System (Space Weather, Sun)

NASA DONKI Notifications

Message Type: RBE

Message Type: Report

Message Type: CME

Message Type: RBE

Message Type: CME