Alerts from NASA's DONKI Early Warning System (Space Weather, Sun)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20250630-AL-002
Issue Time: 2025-06-30T11:30Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-30T11:30:12Z
## Message ID: 20250630-AL-002
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250629-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2025-07-01T05:31Z and 2025-07-01T09:45Z (average arrival 2025-07-01T08:03Z) for 25% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-07-01T13:29Z and 2025-07-01T22:42Z (average arrival 2025-07-01T18:01Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 73% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-07-01T03:30Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20250629-AL-001).
This CME event (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C4.0 flare from Active Region 14126 (N07W22) with ID 2025-06-28T19:40:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z.
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/Detailed_results_20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-30T00:43:04Z
## Message ID: 20250630-AL-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-29T15:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~504 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 141/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-29T15:36:00-CME-001
2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-29T11:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~358 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 129/40 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-29T11:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined front of the CMEs may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-02T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-06-29T11:36:00-CME-001, 2025-06-29T15:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Psyche, BepiColombo)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-29T23:09:18Z
## Message ID: 20250629-AL-004
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-06-29T12:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250629-AL-003). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may affect Psyche (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-07-08T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect BepiColombo (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-06-30T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
CME parameters are (C-type):
Start time of the event: 2025-06-29T12:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~511 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -41/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-29T12:12:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-29T12:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_182600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_182600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_182600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_182600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_182600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_182600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250629_182600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-29T20:50:55Z
## Message ID: 20250629-AL-003
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-29T12:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~511 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -41/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-29T12:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-06-30T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-29T12:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-29T13:40:14Z
## Message ID: 20250629-AL-002
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2025-06-29T05:30Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-06-27T11:40Z are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-06-25, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 775 km/s (see notification 20250627-AL-001). The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 520 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-29T00:10:26Z
## Message ID: 20250629-AL-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-28T21:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~589 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 9/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-07-01T03:30Z (plus minus 7 hours), and the flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-07-01T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-07-01T17:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C4.0 flare from AR 14126 (N07W22) with ID 2025-06-28T19:40:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
