Alerts from NASA's DONKI Early Warning System (Space Weather, Sun)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20251106-AL-011
Issue Time: 2025-11-06T19:56Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T19:56:56Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-011
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-06T12:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~529 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 13 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 141/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-06T12:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-11-09T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-06T12:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T15:06:52Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-010
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-05T23:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~676 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -21/33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-05T23:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-06T18:25Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-07T15:00Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-07T15:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-07T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-08T05:10Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-05T23:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T12:41:04Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-009
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
A space weather storm has recently affected Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index reached level 6.67 (strong) during the synoptic period 2025-11-06T03:00Z to 2025-11-06T06:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-05T16:50:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251105-AL-006) and the arrival of the CME with ID 2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001 (see notification 20251103-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-05T21:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-11-06T03:51:00-MPC-001 (see notification 20251106-AL-007).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T06:02:18Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-008
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.67 (strong) during the synoptic period 2025-11-06T03:00Z to 2025-11-06T06:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20251103-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-05T21:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-05T16:50:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20251105-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T03:21:37Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-007
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-11-06T03:51Z.
The activity is associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-05T16:50:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251105-AL-006) and the arrival of the CME with ID 2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001 (see notification 20251103-AL-003), and the Geomagnetic Storm with ID 2025-11-05T21:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20251106-AL-001 and 20251106-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T02:56:00Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-05T22:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~1028 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -12/41 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-05T22:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-06T13:57Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-07T10:17Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-07T08:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-07T15:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-11-08T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-07T16:22Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-9 (strong to extreme).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-05T22:23:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-11-05T22:23:00-CME-001) is associated with M8.6 flare from Active Region 14274 (N30E41) with ID 2025-11-05T21:52:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-05T22:07Z (see notifications 20251105-AL-007 and 20251105-AL-008).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T02:41:54Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-005
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-05T16:08Z.
Estimated speed: ~657 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -27/38 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-05T16:08:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-06T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-05T16:08:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T02:32:00Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-004
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-05T15:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~861 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 13 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 124/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-05T15:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-11-07T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-05T15:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T02:11:43Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-003
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251105-AL-005). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 25 ensemble members (see notes section), 25 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-11-06T17:52Z and 2025-11-07T03:59Z (average arrival 2025-11-07T00:06Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 7-9 range (strong to extreme).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-05_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086/20251105_130200_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-05_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086/20251105_130200_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-05_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086/20251105_130200_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086_Earth_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact BepiColombo at 2025-11-05T23:32Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-06T23:48Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T19:35Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-07T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20251105-AL-005).
This CME event (2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001) is associated with an M7.4 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24E47) with ID 2025-11-05T10:36:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-05T11:19Z (see notifications 20251105-AL-003, 20251105-AL-004).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-05_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086/Detailed_results_20251105_130200_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T00:17:15Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-002
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-11-05T21:00Z to 2025-11-06T00:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-05T16:50:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251105-AL-006) and the arrival of the CME with ID 2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001 (see notification 20251103-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-06T00:06:14Z
## Message ID: 20251106-AL-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-11-05T21:00Z to 2025-11-06T00:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M8.6 Flare
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-05T22:26:57Z
## Message ID: 20251105-AL-008
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-11-05T21:52Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-11-05T22:07Z.
Flare intensity: M8.6 class.
Source region: N30E41 (Active Region 14274) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-05T22:11:38Z
## Message ID: 20251105-AL-007
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-11-05T22:04Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for October 29, 2025 - November 04, 2025
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-05T21:04:03Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-10-29T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-11-04T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20251105-7D-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 2 X-class flares, 8 M-class flares, 8 O-type CMEs, and 33 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-10-31T23:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-04T04:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-4 (below minor)
(see notification 20251101-AL-005).
The arrival of this CME is under analysis.
2025-11-03T09:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-05T20:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20251103-AL-003).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-11-05T16:50Z.
2025-11-04T22:53Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-07T04:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notification 20251105-AL-002).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-10-29T00:12Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-10-30T16:57Z, BepiColombo at 2025-10-29T22:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-11-01T06:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-11-02T07:46Z (see notification 20251029-AL-001).
2025-10-30T04:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-10-31T01:23Z, Mars at 2025-11-02T10:18Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-10-31T15:03Z, Psyche at 2025-11-03T08:53Z (see notification 20251030-AL-001).
2025-10-30T17:00Z Juice at 2025-11-02T10:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-11-08T00:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-11-12T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251031-AL-001).
2025-10-31T00:24Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-01T11:53Z, BepiColombo at 2025-10-31T19:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-11-05T09:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20251031-AL-004).
2025-10-31T00:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-10-31T23:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-01T12:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-11-06T03:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251101-AL-004).
2025-10-31T06:23Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-01T18:03Z, BepiColombo at 2025-11-01T00:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-11-05T20:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20251031-AL-005).
2025-10-31T08:48Z Juice at 2025-11-03T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251031-AL-007).
2025-10-31T09:38Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-01T02:50Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-01T18:25Z, Psyche at 2025-11-06T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251031-AL-006).
2025-10-31T14:05Z Juice at 2025-11-03T10:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20251031-AL-008).
2025-10-31T17:36Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-02T06:39Z (see notification 20251101-AL-002).
2025-10-31T18:23Z Juice at 2025-11-03T15:26Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-11-07T00:00Z (minor impact), Lucy at 2025-11-11T04:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20251101-AL-003).
2025-10-31T20:00Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-02T06:39Z (see notification 20251101-AL-002).
2025-10-31T20:24Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-02T13:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-11-07T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251101-AL-001).
2025-10-31T23:36Z Juice at 2025-11-03T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251101-AL-006).
2025-10-31T23:48Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-01T20:13Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-03T16:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-03T04:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-03T15:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251101-AL-005).
2025-11-01T18:00Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-02T11:59Z (see notification 20251102-AL-001).
2025-11-02T12:23Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-03T05:27Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-04T03:40Z (see notification 20251102-AL-003).
2025-11-02T15:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-03T19:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251102-AL-004).
2025-11-02T16:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-03T19:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251102-AL-004).
2025-11-03T03:24Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-03T19:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251103-AL-005).
2025-11-03T04:36Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-05T00:26Z, BepiColombo at 2025-11-03T21:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251103-AL-006).
2025-11-03T09:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-03T22:21Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-04T18:40Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-05T16:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-05T15:30Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251103-AL-003).
2025-11-03T12:48Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-04T01:04Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-04T18:47Z (see notification 20251103-AL-004).
2025-11-04T00:24Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-04T15:50Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-05T11:15Z (see notification 20251104-AL-001).
2025-11-04T03:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-04T20:39Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251104-AL-003).
2025-11-04T11:00Z STEREO A at 2025-11-07T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251104-AL-006).
2025-11-04T17:53Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-05T07:31Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T05:36Z (see notification 20251104-AL-007).
2025-11-04T22:38Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T08:08Z, Psyche at 2025-11-09T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251105-AL-001).
2025-11-04T22:53Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-05T16:47Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-06T23:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T21:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-06T23:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251105-AL-002).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 5.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.33 occurred during the synoptic periods of 2025-10-30T09:00Z to 2025-10-30T12:00Z and 2025-10-30T12:00Z to 2025-10-30T15:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-10-28 in the previous reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-10-31T12:05Z (see notifications 20251031-AL-002, 20251031-AL-003, 20251102-AL-002, 20251104-AL-002). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-10-28 in the previous reporting period. The energetic electron flux levels remained enhanced throughout the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at near background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earths outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-10-31T23:48Z ~567 C -46/-18 32 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-11-03T09:36Z ~1034 O -56/24 45 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-04T22:53Z ~639 C -36/29 39 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-10-29T00:12Z ~1226 O -121/33 44 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-29T04:24Z ~777 C -120/50 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-29T06:36Z ~579 C NONE(POS)/42 16 SOHO, GOES
2025-10-29T17:24Z ~602 C -122/53 11 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-29T21:24Z ~755 C NONE(POS)/-22 10 SOHO
2025-10-30T04:36Z ~1250 O -117/36 50 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-30T07:24Z ~524 C 90/37 13 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-30T13:25Z ~826 C 115/-34 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-30T14:24Z ~526 C 78/65 21 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-30T14:36Z ~563 C -124/36 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-30T16:00Z ~1005 O -144/39 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-30T17:00Z ~931 C 129/-32 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-30T17:12Z ~776 C NONE(POS)/24 10 SOHO, GOES
2025-10-31T00:24Z ~743 C -97/-4 33 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-31T00:36Z ~732 C -100/-39 30 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-31T06:23Z ~745 C -99/-6 27 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-10-31T08:48Z ~855 C 137/-33 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-31T09:38Z ~802 C -73/-8 32 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-10-31T14:05Z ~546 C 141/33 33 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-31T17:36Z ~691 C -80/-8 13 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-31T18:23Z ~726 C 175/4 34 STEREO A
2025-10-31T20:00Z ~791 C -80/-10 14 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-31T20:24Z ~835 C -102/48 37 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-31T23:36Z ~1190 O 142/-30 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-01T03:12Z ~785 C NONE(POS)/34 10 SOHO
2025-11-01T18:00Z ~624 C -37/-5 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-02T12:23Z ~757 C -73/22 38 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-11-02T15:36Z ~536 C -58/-11 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-02T16:36Z ~500 C -49/-8 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-03T03:24Z ~681 C -54/35 22 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-03T04:36Z ~686 C -82/29 32 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-03T12:00Z ~628 C 170/-73 36 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-03T12:48Z ~1274 O -70/33 39 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-04T00:24Z ~1055 O -70/32 36 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-04T03:36Z ~722 C -48/30 25 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-04T11:00Z ~782 C 85/-8 16 SOHO
2025-11-04T17:53Z ~976 C -54/32 39 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-11-04T22:38Z ~1018 O -95/-25 33 STEREO A, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-11-05T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-11-11T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently four Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14274 (N24E42), which produced six M-class flares and one X-class flare during the reporting period, and Active Region 14272 (N22E25), which produced two M-class flares during the reporting period, may continue to exhibit notable flaring activity throughout the outlook period. A new unnumbered active region on the southeast limb (located at approximately S15E90) produced one X-class flare during the reporting period and may continue to exhibit notable flaring activity as it rotates onto the Earth-facing disk.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between moderate to severe levels during the outlook period due to the anticipated arrivals of the C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 at 2025-11-04T22:53Z associated with the M1.7 flare from Active Region 14272 (N25E36) peaking at 2025-11-04T22:44Z as well as the arrival of an O-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 at 2025-11-05T10:53Z associated with the M7.4 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24E47) peaking at 2025-11-05T11:19Z (see notifications 20251105-AL-002, 20251105-AL-005). A coronal hole stretching diagonally from N40E20 to N00W30 began crossing the central meridian on 2025-11-03 (as seen in available GOES SUVI imagery) and may reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2025-11-06.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-05T18:48:38Z
## Message ID: 20251105-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE at L1 at 2025-11-05T16:50Z.
The shock is likely caused by CME with ID 2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001 (see notification 20251103-AL-003). Some magnetospheric compression expected and minor geomagnetic storm likely.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-05T16:11:48Z
## Message ID: 20251105-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-05T10:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~1123 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -37/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-05T23:32Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-06T23:48Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T19:35Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-07T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-07T03:22Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-9 (strong to extreme).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_135600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.4 flare with ID 2025-11-05T10:36:00-FLR-001 from AR 14274 (N24E47) which peaked at 2025-11-05T11:19Z (see notifications 20251105-AL-003, 20251105-AL-004).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.4 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-05T12:00:09Z
## Message ID: 20251105-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-11-05T10:36Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-11-05T11:19Z.
Flare intensity: M7.4 class.
Source region: N24E47 (Active Region 14274) (based on GOES imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-05T11:11:24Z
## Message ID: 20251105-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-11-05T11:06Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-05T03:33:37Z
## Message ID: 20251105-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-04T22:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~639 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -36/29 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-04T22:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-05T16:47Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-06T23:00Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T21:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-06T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-07T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-04T22:53:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-11-04T22:53:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.7 flare from AR 14272 (N25E36) with ID 2025-11-04T22:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-04T22:44Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-05T00:47:56Z
## Message ID: 20251105-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-04T22:38Z.
Estimated speed: ~1018 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -95/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-04T22:38:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow) and Parker Solar Probe. The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T08:08Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-11-09T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-04T22:38:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_020000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_020000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_020000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_020000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_020000_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_020000_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251105_020000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-11-04T22:38:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare on or just beyond the SE limb (S15E90) with ID 2025-11-04T21:45:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-04T22:01Z (see notifications 20251104-AL-008, 20251104-AL-009).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-04T22:12:05Z
## Message ID: 20251104-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-11-04T21:45Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-11-04T22:01Z.
Flare intensity: X1.1 class.
Source region: S15E90 (based on GOES imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2025-11-04T21:45:00-FLR-001.
## Notes:
This flare was located on or beyond the SE limb in available GOES SUVI 131 imagery.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-04T22:01:09Z
## Message ID: 20251104-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-11-04T21:57Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-04T21:21:14Z
## Message ID: 20251104-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-04T17:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~976 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -54/32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-04T17:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo and Parker Solar Probe. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-05T07:31Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T05:36Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-04T17:53:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-11-04T17:53:00-CME-001) is associated with an X1.8 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24E63) with ID 2025-11-04T17:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-04T17:34Z (see notifications 20251104-AL-004, 20251104-AL-005).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-04T19:21:10Z
## Message ID: 20251104-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-04T11:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~782 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 16 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 85/-8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-04T11:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-11-07T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-04T11:00:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-11-04T11:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C4.6 flare from Active Region 14267 (N01W85) with ID 2025-11-04T10:02:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-04T10:13Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.8 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-04T17:55:04Z
## Message ID: 20251104-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-11-04T17:15Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-11-04T17:34Z.
Flare intensity: X1.8 class.
Source region: N24E63 (Active Region 14274) (based on GOES imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-04T17:31:04Z
## Message ID: 20251104-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-11-04T17:26Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-04T13:47:20Z
## Message ID: 20251104-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-04T03:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~722 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -48/30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-04T03:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-04T20:39Z and the flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-04T03:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-04T13:36:02Z
## Message ID: 20251104-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-11-04T11:05Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-10-31T12:05Z are caused by the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-10-28, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 750 km/s (see notifications 20251031-AL-002, 20251031-AL-003). The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 400 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-04T04:48:02Z
## Message ID: 20251104-AL-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-04T00:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1055 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -70/32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-04T00:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo and Parker Solar Probe. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-04T15:50Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-05T11:15Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-04T00:24:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-11-04T00:24:00-CME-001) is associated with C8.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24E59) with ID 2025-11-03T23:37:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-04T00:08Z and M3.5 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24E70) with ID 2025-11-04T01:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-04T01:48Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
