Alerts from NASA's DONKI Early Warning System (Space Weather, Sun)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: RBE
Message ID: 20260107-AL-002
Issue Time: 2026-01-07T20:09Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-07T20:09:46Z
## Message ID: 20260107-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-01-07T14:50Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-12-23T08:55Z (see notifications 20251224-AL-001, 20251226-AL-002, 20251228-AL-001, 20251230-AL-003, 20260101-AL-002, 20260103-AL-003, 20260105-AL-001) are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-12-21, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 800km/s. Solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 350 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for December 31, 2025 - January 06, 2026
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-07T19:46:27Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-12-31T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2026-01-06T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20260107-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached moderate levels during this reporting period with 1 M-class flare, 1 O-type CME, and 11 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-12-31T14:00Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-01-02T21:29Z, Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notifications 20251231-AL-004, 20260101-AL-001).
Ensemble: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/Detailed_results_20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090.txt
The arrival of this CME is under investigation.
2026-01-01T19:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-01-04T15:17Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notifications 20260101-AL-003, 20260102-AL-001).
Ensemble: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091/Detailed_results_20260101_193600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091.txt
The arrival of this CME was likely detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 around 2026-01-04T20:41Z.
2026-01-06T02:00Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-01-08T09:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20260106-AL-001).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-12-31T04:36Z BepiColombo at 2026-01-01T03:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251231-AL-001).
2025-12-31T14:00Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-02T11:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-02T22:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-01-03T13:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2026-01-15T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notifications 20251231-AL-004, 20260101-AL-001).
2026-01-01T19:36Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-04T02:20Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-04T09:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-01-04T18:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2026-01-18T12:00Z (minor impact) (see notifications 20260101-AL-003, 20260102-AL-001).
2026-01-04T05:12Z Juice at 2026-01-07T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260104-AL-001).
2026-01-06T02:00Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-08T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260106-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.00 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.00 occurred during the synoptic period of 2026-01-02T18:00Z to 2026-01-02T21:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE on 2026-01-02.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained elevated above the threshold level of 1000 pfu during the reporting period due to an enhancement starting around 2025-12-23T08:55Z in a previous reporting period (see notifications 20251224-AL-001, 20251226-AL-002, 20251228-AL-001, 20251230-AL-003, 20260101-AL-002, 20260103-AL-003, 20260105-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-12-21. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels detected at SOHO, and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at near background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-12-31 13:12:00 14:11:00 13:51:00 M7.1 N24E20 ( 14324 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-12-31T14:00Z ~886 C -24/19 41 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-01T19:36Z ~628 C -9/22 35 SOHO, GOES
2026-01-06T02:00Z ~895 C -33/-11 29 SOHO, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-12-31T04:36Z ~922 C 127/25 15 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-02T17:24Z ~1010 O NONE(POS)/32 30 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-04T05:12Z ~524 C 110/0 24 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-04T10:36Z ~533 C NONE(POS)/-15 30 SOHO, GOES
2026-01-04T12:00Z ~559 C -77/6 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2026-01-05T08:48Z ~661 C -46/-22 19 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-01-06T12:12Z ~519 C NONE(POS)/47 17 SOHO, GOES
2026-01-06T14:24Z ~564 C -21/-36 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2026-01-06T16:38Z ~649 C -30/9 14 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2026-01-07T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-01-13T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently seven numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14324 (N25W77) produced the only M-class flare during the reporting period and Active Region 14334 (S15E10) produced lower level C-class flaring associated with C-type CME activity. These regions may continue to produce similar levels of flaring activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. A large coronal hole (as seen in available imagery from SDO AIA 193) began crossing the central meridian on 2026-01-06 may begin to reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2026-01-09. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES remained elevated through the end of the reporting period due to an enhancement starting at 2025-12-23T08:55Z (see notifications 20251224-AL-001, 20251226-AL-002, 20251228-AL-001, 20251230-AL-03, 20260101-AL-002, 20260103-AL-003, 20260105-AL-001) and may continue to be elevated during the outlook period.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-07T18:19:32Z
## Message ID: 20260107-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-07T04:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~675 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -30/-32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-07T04:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-09T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-09T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-07T04:23:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-01-07T04:23:00-CME-001) is associated with a C2.9 flare from Active Region 14334 (S15E18) with ID 2026-01-07T03:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-07T03:54Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-06T17:14:14Z
## Message ID: 20260106-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-06T02:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~895 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -33/-11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-08T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-08T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C2.2 flare from Active Region 14334 (S15E33) with ID 2026-01-06T00:10:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-06T00:21Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-05T19:44:25Z
## Message ID: 20260105-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux first crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2025-12-23T08:55Z. The most recent crossing of the 1000 pfu threshold was at 2026-01-04T14:30Z and the fluxes are currently elevated but below the threshold.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-12-23T08:55Z (see notifications 20251224-AL-001, 20251226-AL-002, 20251228-AL-001, 20251230-AL-003, 20260101-AL-002) are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-12-21, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 800 km/s. A subsequent coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-01-02 and the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001 as detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2026-01-04T20:41Z may have further enhanced the electron fluxes. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 375 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-04T15:16:46Z
## Message ID: 20260104-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-04T05:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~524 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 110/0 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-04T05:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2026-01-07T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-04T05:12:00-CME-001):
