Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20250711-AL-002
Issue Time: 2025-07-11T22:20Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-11T22:20:50Z
## Message ID: 20250711-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-07-11T09:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~733 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -163/-33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-07-11T09:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-14T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-07-11T09:53:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250711_140100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250711_140100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250711_140100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250711_140100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20250711-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-07-11T18:51Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-11T18:51:36Z
## Message ID: 20250711-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-07-10T20:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~561 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -173/-29 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-07-10T20:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-13T11:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-07-10T20:53:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250711_024800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250711_024800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250711_024800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250711_024800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
Message Type: Report
Message ID: 20250709-7D-001
Issue Time: 2025-07-09T18:27Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for July 02, 2025 - July 08, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-09T18:27:58Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-07-02T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-07-08T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250709-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached moderate levels during this reporting period with 1 M-class flare, 2 O-type CMEs, and 19 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-07-03T07:08Z Juice at 2025-07-05T18:09Z, STEREO A at 2025-07-05T22:50Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-07-04T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250703-AL-002).
2025-07-03T07:32Z Mars at 2025-07-06T22:00Z (minor impact), BepiColombo at 2025-07-04T08:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-07-09T23:00Z (minor impact), Europa Clipper at 2025-07-09T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250703-AL-004).
2025-07-04T01:25Z Mars at 2025-07-08T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250704-AL-001).
2025-07-04T02:24Z Mars at 2025-07-08T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250704-AL-001).
2025-07-04T20:48Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-07-06T00:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-07-06T21:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250704-AL-002).
2025-07-05T11:36Z Juice at 2025-07-09T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250705-AL-001).
2025-07-05T22:12Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-07-08T00:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-07-08T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250706-AL-001).
2025-07-06T02:12Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-07-08T00:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-07-08T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250706-AL-001).
2025-07-07T07:00Z Juice at 2025-07-09T14:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250707-AL-001).
2025-07-07T15:00Z Mars at 2025-07-12T12:00Z (see notifications 20250707-AL-002, 20250708-AL-002).
2025-07-07T22:38Z Mars at 2025-07-12T12:00Z (see notifications 20250707-AL-002, 20250708-AL-002).
2025-07-07T23:00Z Juice at 2025-07-10T02:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20250708-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.33 occurred during the synoptic periods of 2025-07-06T21:00Z to 2025-07-07T00:00Z and 2025-07-07T00:00Z-03:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE on 2025-07-05.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained elevated above the threshold level of 1000 pfu at the beginning of the reporting period (see notifications 20250627-AL-001, 20250629-AL-002, 20250701-AL-001, 20250703-AL-003). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-06-27T11:40Z was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-06-25 in the previous reporting period. The energetic electron flux levels returned to background levels on 2025-07-04.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-07-08 03:42:00 04:37:00 04:17:00 M2.4 N22E90 ( 14136 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
NONE
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-07-02T00:24Z ~591 C NONE(POS)/-31 30 SOHO, GOES
2025-07-03T07:08Z ~616 C 75/9 45 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-03T07:32Z ~711 C -90/10 26 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-04T01:25Z ~905 C -85/11 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-04T02:24Z ~807 C -93/9 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-04T14:12Z ~622 C -163/45 27 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-04T14:24Z ~758 C -80/-22 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-04T20:48Z ~1148 O 44/-12 10 SOHO, GOES
2025-07-05T08:12Z ~671 C 110/68 32 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-05T11:36Z ~614 C 90/54 27 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-05T18:12Z ~628 C NONE(POS)/-11 10 SOHO
2025-07-05T20:36Z ~516 C NONE(POS)/-17 10 SOHO, GOES
2025-07-05T22:12Z ~595 C 45/-8 10 SOHO, GOES
2025-07-06T02:12Z ~601 C 49/-9 10 SOHO
2025-07-06T09:12Z ~879 C -48/-21 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-07-07T03:24Z ~643 C 7/51 22 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-07T07:00Z ~723 C 73/-14 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-07T15:00Z ~930 C -82/-21 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-07T22:38Z ~680 C -93/-14 11 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-07-07T23:00Z ~1118 O 75/-14 10 GOES, SOHO
2025-07-08T04:24Z ~657 C -109/53 23 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-07-09T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-07-15T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently six Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14136 (N19E71) produced the only M-class flare of the reporting period and may continue to produce similar flaring activity as it rotates onto the Earth-facing disk.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt was elevated above the threshold of 1000 pfu on 2025-07-09 and may continue to be elevated throughout the outlook period due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on 2025-07-05 mentioned above (see notifications 20250709-AL-001 and 20250709-AL-002). Additionally, a coronal hole spanning a large portion of the southeastern disk (as seen in available EUV imagery from SDO/AIA) began to cross the central meridian on 2025-07-08. This coronal hole may reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2025-07-13.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20250709-AL-003
Issue Time: 2025-07-09T18:10Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-09T18:10:48Z
## Message ID: 20250709-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-07-09T13:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~974 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -165/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-07-09T13:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-11T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-07-09T13:36:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250709_164700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250709_164700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250709_164700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250709_164700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
Message Type: RBE
Message ID: 20250709-AL-002
Issue Time: 2025-07-09T15:05Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-09T15:05:45Z
## Message ID: 20250709-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-07-09T14:25Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-07-05, reaching maximum speeds of approximately 600 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 425 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-07-09T14:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
URL: View Details
Message Type: RBE
Message ID: 20250709-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-07-09T14:34Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-09T14:34:12Z
## Message ID: 20250709-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-07-09T14:25Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-07-09T14:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
URL: View Details
