Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20251016-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-10-16T01:39Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-16T01:39:49Z
## Message ID: 20251016-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-10-15T23:15Z.
Estimated speed: ~802 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 48/36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-10-15T23:15:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-17T12:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-10-18T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-10-15T23:15:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-15T21:04:30Z
## Message ID: 20251015-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-10-15T15:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251015-AL-003). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-10-29T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect Solar Orbiter and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-17T04:32Z and STEREO A at 2025-10-17T20:32Z (plus minus 7 hours). Previous simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-10-18T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
CME parameters are (C-type):
Start time of the event: 2025-10-15T15:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~712 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 44/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-10-15T15:36:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-10-15T15:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for October 08, 2025 - October 14, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-15T20:46:37Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-10-08T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-10-14T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20251015-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached moderate levels during this reporting period with 7 M-class flares and 14 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-10-12T14:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-10-15T14:22Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20251013-AL-001).
2025-10-12T14:53Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-10-15T14:22Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20251013-AL-001).
2025-10-13T01:25Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-10-15T20:00Z (minor impact), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notification 20251013-AL-003).
2025-10-13T13:53Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-10-16T14:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notification 20251013-AL-004).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-10-11T19:12Z BepiColombo at 2025-10-13T03:30Z, Psyche at 2025-10-18T07:00Z (minor impact), Mars at 2025-10-16T14:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2025-10-14T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251012-AL-001).
2025-10-12T14:23Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-10-15T08:23Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-14T09:04Z, STEREO A at 2025-10-16T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251013-AL-001).
2025-10-12T14:53Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-10-15T08:23Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-14T09:04Z, STEREO A at 2025-10-16T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251013-AL-001).
2025-10-13T01:25Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-14T13:43Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-10-15T14:00Z (minor impact), STEREO A at 2025-10-15T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251013-AL-003).
2025-10-13T13:53Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-15T06:38Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-10-16T08:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-10-16T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251013-AL-004).
2025-10-14T00:48Z BepiColombo at 2025-10-15T01:32Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-10-15T12:53Z, Mars at 2025-10-19T00:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-10-20T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251014-AL-001).
2025-10-14T01:38Z BepiColombo at 2025-10-15T01:32Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-10-15T12:53Z, Mars at 2025-10-19T00:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-10-20T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251014-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 5.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.33 occurred during the synoptic period of 2025-10-12T18:00Z-21:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE at 2025-10-11T08:42Z which was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE at L1 on 2025-10-11.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt was elevated above the threshold level of 1000 pfu at the beginning of the reporting period due to a threshold crossing from the previous reporting period starting at 2025-10-01T13:25Z (see notifications 20251001-AL-002, 20251001-AL-004, 20251003-AL-001, 20251005-AL-002, 20251007-AL-001, 20251009-AL-001). Energetic electron flux levels subsided on 2025-10-09 before a new threshold crossing of 1000 pfu occurred at 2025-10-10T06:40Z (see notification 20251011-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrivals of the S-type CMEs first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2025-10-03T05:53Z and SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-10-03T16:38Z as detected at L1 by ACE at 2025-10-06T06:35Z and 2025-10-09T07:40Z, respectively. The energetic electron flux levels returned to nominal levels on 2025-10-12. The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux levels crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu again at 2025-10-12T12:55Z (see notifications 20251013-AL-002, 20251015-AL-002). This subsequent elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE at 2025-10-11T08:42Z which was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE at L1 on 2025-10-11. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-10-13T01:25Z ~589 C 17/6 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-10-13T13:53Z ~536 C 19/36 31 STEREO A, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-10-11T17:36Z ~860 C NONE(POS)/-11 11 SOHO, GOES
2025-10-11T19:12Z ~505 C -117/-37 44 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-12T08:12Z ~645 C -126/-84 36 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-12T23:24Z ~504 C NONE(POS)/53 28 SOHO, GOES
2025-10-13T17:00Z ~503 C -95/29 13 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-10-14T00:48Z ~667 C -78/6 28 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-14T01:25Z ~693 C NONE(POS)/7 32 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-14T01:30Z ~594 C 43/54 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-14T01:38Z ~877 C -92/20 32 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-10-14T03:36Z ~834 C -114/43 25 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-14T03:48Z ~773 C 31/46 12 SOHO, GOES
2025-10-14T20:36Z ~914 C 80/33 20 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-10-15T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-10-21T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently five Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14246 (N22W52) produced multiple M-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to produce similar levels of flaring activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole stretching diagonally from S20W00 to N45E70 (as seen in available GOES SUVI 195 imagery) may begin to reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2025-10-19. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES mentioned above may remain elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE at L1 on 2025-10-11 (see notifications 20251013-AL-002, 20251015-AL-002).
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-15T20:37:55Z
## Message ID: 20251015-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-10-15T15:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~712 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 44/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-10-15T15:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-17T04:32Z and STEREO A at 2025-10-17T20:32Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-10-18T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-10-15T15:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-15T15:31:13Z
## Message ID: 20251015-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-10-15T11:35Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-10-12T12:55Z are caused by coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-10-11, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 800 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 500 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-15T15:03:36Z
## Message ID: 20251015-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-10-15T04:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~537 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 26/44 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-10-15T04:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-17T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-10-15T04:48:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-10-15T04:48:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.8 flare from Active Region 14246 (N25W45) with ID 2025-10-15T03:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-10-15T04:15Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Psyche, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Mars)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-14T21:07:39Z
## Message ID: 20251014-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-10-14T01:38Z.
Estimated speed: ~877 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -92/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-10-14T01:38:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-10-14T00:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~667 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -78/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-10-14T00:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Psyche (glancing blow), BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, and Mars (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-10-15T01:32Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-10-15T12:53Z (plus minus 7 hours). The combined flank of the CMEs will reach Psyche at 2025-10-20T00:00Z and Mars at 2025-10-19T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-10-14T01:38:00-CME-001, 2025-10-14T00:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-13T16:32:03Z
## Message ID: 20251013-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2025-10-13T13:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~536 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 19/36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-10-13T13:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-15T06:38Z and the flank will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-10-16T08:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-10-16T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-10-16T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-10-13T13:53:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-10-13T13:53:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.2 flare with ID 2025-10-13T13:04:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14246 (N24W23) which peaked at 2025-10-13T13:18Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-13T15:57:40Z
## Message ID: 20251013-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-10-13T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~589 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 17/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-10-13T01:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX (minor impact), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-14T13:43Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-10-15T14:00Z and the flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-10-15T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a minor impact at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-10-15T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-10-13T01:25:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-10-13T01:25:00-CME-001) is associated with C9.3 flare with ID 2025-10-13T00:17:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14246 (N24W12) which peaked at 2025-10-13T00:36Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-13T15:31:32Z
## Message ID: 20251013-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-10-13T09:40Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-10-12T12:55Z are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-10-11, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 800 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 650 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-10-12T12:55:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
Previously elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-10-01T13:25Z were associated with coronal hole high speed streams observed at L1 at 2025-09-27 and 2025-09-30 (see notifications 20251001-AL-001, 20251001-AL-004, 20251003-AL-001, 20251005-AL-002, 20251007-AL-001, and 20251009-AL-001). The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed starting at 2025-10-10T06:40Z were likely caused by the arrival of CME with ID 2025-10-03T05:53:00-CME-001 detected by ACE at L1 at 2025-10-06T06:35Z and possibly the arrival of CME with ID 2025-10-03T16:38:00-CME-001 detected by ACE at L1 at 2025-10-09T07:40Z (see notification 20251011-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-13T00:38:18Z
## Message ID: 20251013-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-10-12T14:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~448 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 1/33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-10-12T14:23:00-CME-001
2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2025-10-12T14:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~409 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 10/12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-10-12T14:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-10-15T08:23Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-14T09:04Z, and the flank will reach STEREO A at 2025-10-16T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-10-15T14:22Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-10-12T14:23:00-CME-001, 2025-10-12T14:53:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-10-12T14:53:00-CME-001) is likely associated with C9.6 flare from Active Region 14246 (N22W10) with ID 2025-10-12T13:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-10-12T13:50Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
