Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20251114-AL-011
Issue Time: 2025-11-14T20:14Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T20:14:56Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-011
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-14T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~1081 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -119/-37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-14T01:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-15T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-14T01:25:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_041300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_041300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_041300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_041300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_041300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_041300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T17:38:16Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-010
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-14T08:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~1534 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 62/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-14T08:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-14T20:07Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-16T01:12Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-15T20:41Z, and STEREO A at 2025-11-15T20:37Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2025-11-26T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-16T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-7 (below minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-14T08:00:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251114_104000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-11-14T08:00:00-CME-001) is associated with X4.0 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24W71) with ID 2025-11-14T07:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-14T08:30Z (see notifications 20251114-AL-002 and 20251114-AL-004), and SEP events at GOES with ID 2025-11-14T09:20:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20251114-AL-003 and 20251114-AL-005), at SOHO with ID 2025-11-14T12:32:00-SEP-001, and at STEREO A with ID 2025-11-14T12:33:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20251114-AL-006 and 20251114-AL-007).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (SOHO)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T14:03:40Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-11-14T12:32Z.
NASA spacecraft at the orbits near L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-14T12:32:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-11-14T12:32:00-SEP-001) is associated with X4.0 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24W71) with ID 2025-11-14T07:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-14T08:30Z (see notifications 20251114-AL-002 and 20251114-AL-004) and CME with ID 2025-11-14T08:00:00-CME-001 (see notification 20251114-AL-008).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions near Earth, STEREO A, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T13:56:43Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-14T08:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~1261 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 70/22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
NASA spacecraft near the L1 Lagrange point, STEREO A, the Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo, and missions near the Earth can be affected. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2025-11-14T08:00:00-CME-001
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-11-14T08:00:00-CME-001) is associated with X4.0 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24W71) with ID 2025-11-14T07:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-14T08:30Z (see notifications 20251114-AL-002 and 20251114-AL-004), and SEP events at GOES with ID 2025-11-14T09:20:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20251114-AL-003 and 20251114-AL-005), at SOHO with ID 2025-11-14T12:32:00-SEP-001, and at STEREO A with ID 2025-11-14T12:33:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20251114-AL-006 and 20251114-AL-007).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T13:00:07Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-11-14T12:33Z.
NASA spacecraft located near STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-14T12:33:00-SEP-001.
## Notes: This SEP event is associated with an X4.0-class flare from Active Region 14274 (N24W71) with ID 2025-11-14T07:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-14T08:30Z (see notifications 20251114-AL-002 and 20251114-AL-004) and an asymmetric halo CME which is still under analysis.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T12:46:50Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-11-14T12:33Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (GOES)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T12:39:54Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-11-11T09:45Z (see notification 20251111-AL-003 and 20251111-AL-008). An additional rise in the proton flux started after 2025-11-14T09:20Z, reaching 15.6 pfu so far. This additional enhancement of the ongoing SEP event was associated with an X4.0 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24W71) with ID 2025-11-14T07:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-14T08:30Z (see notifications 20251114-AL-002 and 20251114-AL-004).
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X4.0 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T12:30:19Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-11-14T07:44Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-11-14T08:30Z.
Flare intensity: X4.0 class.
Source region: N24W71 (Active Region 14274) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T09:28:41Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2025-11-14T09:20Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T08:28:41Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-11-14T08:23Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-14T01:01:45Z
## Message ID: 20251114-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
S-type CME detected by STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-13T19:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~494 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -20/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-13T19:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-14T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-16T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-13T19:53:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-13T21:16:43Z
## Message ID: 20251113-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-11-13T03:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251113-AL-005). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-11-29T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-11-15T12:36Z, and its flank will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-15T18:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-15T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
CME parameters are (C-type):
Start time of the event: 2025-11-13T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~936 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 16 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 51/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-13T03:24:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-13T03:24:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251113_064700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251113_064700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251113_064700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-11-13T03:24:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24W51) with ID 2025-11-13T02:43:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-13T03:34Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-13T18:30:52Z
## Message ID: 20251113-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-13T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~936 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 16 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 51/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-13T03:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-11-15T12:36Z, and its flank will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-15T18:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-15T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-13T03:24:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-11-13T03:24:00-CME-001) is likely associated with C6.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N24W51) with ID 2025-11-13T02:43:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-13T03:34Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-13T16:52:37Z
## Message ID: 20251113-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux recently briefly crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-11-13T14:25Z. Energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt are currently elevated but below the threshold.
This temporary elevation of energetic electron flux levels may have been caused by the arrivals of CME with ID 2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20251109-AL-003) and CME with ID 2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251110-AL-006, 20251110-AL-013) and with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-11T22:11:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251111-AL-012), as well as with the arrival of CME with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251111-AL-010, 20251111-AL-011, 20251112-AL-006) and with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-12T18:52:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251112-AL-007).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-13T14:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
The arrivals of these CMEs are also associated with geomagnetic storm with ID 2025-11-12T00:00:00-GST-001 and geomagnetic storm with ID 2025-11-12T18:00:00-GST-001.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-13T03:13:24Z
## Message ID: 20251113-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7.33 (strong) during the synoptic period 2025-11-13T00:00Z to 2025-11-13T03:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-12T18:52:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251112-AL-007) and the arrival of the CME with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251111-AL-010, 20251111-AL-011, 20251112-AL-006).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-12T18:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-11-13T01:27:00-MPC-001 (see notification 20251113-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-13T03:05:10Z
## Message ID: 20251113-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7.33 (strong) during the synoptic period 2025-11-13T00:00Z to 2025-11-13T03:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20251111-AL-010, 20251111-AL-011, 20251112-AL-006).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-13T01:32:34Z
## Message ID: 20251113-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-11-13T01:27Z.
The activity is associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-12T18:52:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251112-AL-007) and with the arrival of the CME with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251111-AL-010, 20251111-AL-011, 20251112-AL-006) and the Geomagnetic Storm with ID 2025-11-12T18:00:00-GST-001 (see notification 20251112-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for November 05, 2025 - November 11, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T23:45:02Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-11-05T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-11-11T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20251112-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached high levels during this reporting period with 3 X-class flares, 7 M-class flares, 4 O-type CMEs, and 17 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-11-05T10:53Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-07T03:22Z, Kp index 7-9 (strong to extreme)
(see notifications 20251105-AL-005, 20251106-AL-003).
Ensemble results: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-05_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086/Detailed_results_20251105_130200_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA086.txt
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-11-07T04:48Z.
2025-11-05T22:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-07T16:22Z, Kp index 7-9 (strong to extreme)
(see notification 20251106-AL-006).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-11-07T21:52Z.
2025-11-05T23:00Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-08T05:10Z, Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notification 20251106-AL-010).
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2025-11-07T07:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-09T18:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20251107-AL-002).
The arrival of this CME may have been detected at L1 around 2025-11-10T17:30Z. Analysis is ongoing.
2025-11-09T07:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-11T15:00Z, Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notification 20251109-AL-003).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-11-11T22:11Z.
2025-11-10T09:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-11T15:00Z, Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notifications 20251110-AL-006, 20251110-AL-013).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-11-11T22:11Z.
2025-11-10T13:08Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-13T06:30Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20251111-AL-001).
2025-11-11T10:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-11-12T20:05Z, Kp index 7-8 (strong to severe)
(see notifications 20251111-AL-010, 20251111-AL-011, 20251112-AL-006).
Ensemble results: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/Detailed_results_20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087.txt
It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-11-05T10:53Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-05T23:32Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-06T23:48Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-06T19:35Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-07T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20251105-AL-005, 20251106-AL-003).
2025-11-05T15:23Z Juice at 2025-11-07T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251106-AL-004).
2025-11-05T16:08Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-06T14:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251106-AL-005).
2025-11-05T22:23Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-06T13:57Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-07T10:17Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-07T08:43Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-07T15:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-11-08T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251106-AL-006).
2025-11-05T23:00Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-06T18:25Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-07T15:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-07T15:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-07T14:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251106-AL-010).
2025-11-06T12:23Z Juice at 2025-11-09T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20251106-AL-011).
2025-11-07T07:23Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-08T00:27Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-09T13:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2025-11-09T00:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-09T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251107-AL-002).
2025-11-09T07:24Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-09T23:55Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-11T05:26Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-11T02:14Z, STEREO A at 2025-11-11T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251109-AL-003).
2025-11-09T13:48Z Juice at 2025-11-12T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251109-AL-004).
2025-11-09T21:12Z Mars at 2025-11-13T04:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20251110-AL-001).
2025-11-10T00:48Z Juice at 2025-11-12T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251111-AL-002).
2025-11-10T09:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-10T20:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-11T18:30Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-11T17:24Z, STEREO A at 2025-11-11T21:20Z (see notifications 20251110-AL-006, 20251110-AL-013).
2025-11-10T13:08Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-11T07:15Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-12T20:35Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-12T18:49Z (see notification 20251111-AL-001).
2025-11-11T10:23Z BepiColombo at 2025-11-11T18:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-12T13:16Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-12T11:51Z, STEREO A at 2025-11-12T14:42Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-010, 20251111-AL-011, 20251112-AL-006).
Geomagnetic activity was at strong levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 6.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 6.67 occurred during the synoptic period of 2025-11-06T03:00Z-06:00Z (see notifications 20251106-AL-001, 20251106-AL-002, 20251106-AL-008, 20251106-AL-009). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2025-11-05T16:50Z (see notification 20251105-AL-006) which was likely associated with the arrival of the O-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-11-03T09:36Z. Simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-11-06T03:51Z (see notification 20251106-AL-007).
Geomagnetic activity was enhanced again, reaching moderate levels with Kp index = 6.33 for the synoptic period of 2025-11-08T00:00Z-03:00Z (see notifications 20251108-AL-001, 20251108-AL-002) due to an additional interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2025-11-07T21:54Z which was likely associated with the arrival of the O-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2025-11-05T22:23Z.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt was elevated above the threshold level of 1000 pfu at the beginning of the reporting period due to a threshold crossing from the previous reporting period starting at 2025-10-31T12:05Z (see notifications 20251031-AL-002, 20251031-AL-003, 20251102-AL-002, 20251104-AL-002). The energetic electron flux levels returned to background levels on 2025-11-06. The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux levels crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu again at 2025-11-08T15:15Z (see notifications 20251108-AL-003, 20251108-AL-004, 20251110-AL-011). This subsequent elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the combined arrivals of the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-11-06, the C-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2025-11-04T22:53Z, and the O-type CMEs first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2025-11-05T10:53Z and 2025-11-05T22:23Z, respectively. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
A solar energetic particle event was detected at SOHO and GOES during the reporting period. At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-11-10T10:45Z (see notifications 20251110-AL-010, 20251110-AL-012). At GOES, the integral flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-11-10T11:25Z (see notifications 20251110-AL-004, 20251110-AL-007). This SEP event was likely associated with the X1.2 flare peaking at 2025-11-10T09:19Z from Active Region 14274 and the associated O-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-11-10T09:36Z.
A second solar energetic particle event was detected at SOHO and GOES during the reporting period. At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-11-11T11:09Z (see notification 20251111-AL-009). At GOES, the integral flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-11-11T09:45Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-003, 20251111-AL-008), and the integral flux of >100 MeV protons exceeded 1 pfu starting at 2025-11-11T10:20Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-005, 20251111-AL-007, 20251112-AL-008). This SEP event was likely associated with the X1.5 flare peaking at 2025-11-11T10:04Z from Active Region 14274 and the associated O-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2025-11-11T10:23Z.
The integral flux of the > 10 MeV protons and the >100 MeV protons at GOES and the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO remained elevated through the end of the reporting period. The energetic proton flux of 13-100 MeV protons detected at STEREO A was elevated starting on 2025-11-11, but remained below threshold for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate to high this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle events and elevated energetic electron flux in the Earths outer radiation belt described above.
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-11-05T10:53Z ~1123 O -37/9 39 STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-05T22:23Z ~1028 O -12/41 45 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-11-05T23:00Z ~676 C -21/33 39 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-07T07:23Z ~617 C -27/19 31 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-11-09T07:24Z ~734 C 2/18 45 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-10T09:36Z ~1298 O 19/8 33 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-10T13:08Z ~630 C 0/23 27 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-11-11T10:23Z ~1856 O 22/24 45 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-11-05T14:00Z ~591 C NONE(POS)/-2 10 SOHO, GOES
2025-11-05T15:23Z ~861 C 124/-16 13 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-11-05T16:08Z ~657 C -27/38 25 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-11-05T19:12Z ~511 C NONE(POS)/-7 10 SOHO, GOES
2025-11-05T22:00Z ~955 C -36/63 20 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-06T12:23Z ~529 C 141/-10 13 STEREO A, SOHO
2025-11-07T03:53Z ~684 C NONE(POS)/0 10 STEREO A
2025-11-07T23:08Z ~619 C NONE(POS)/-13 10 STEREO A
2025-11-09T13:48Z ~610 C 98/-9 19 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-09T21:12Z ~975 C -156/-4 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-11-10T00:48Z ~560 C 105/10 29 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-11-11T14:45Z ~880 C NONE(POS)/57 20 GOES
2025-11-11T15:30Z ~584 C 22/55 19 GOES, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-11-12T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-11-18T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently eight Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14274 (N24W48) produced several X-class flares during the reporting period and is likely to continue to produce similar levels of flaring activity before rotating off the Earth-facing disk on 2025-11-15. This Active Region may be the source of significant far-sided activity after rotating off the Earth-facing disk during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach strong to severe levels during the outlook period, with a chance for strong to severe storm levels on 2025-11-12 to 2025-11-13 due to the anticipated arrival of the O-type halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-11-11T10:23Z associated with the X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) peaking at 2025-11-11T10:04Z. The Kp reached level 8.67 (severe) for the synoptic period 2025-11-12T00:00Z to 2025-11-12T03:00Z due to the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-11-11T22:11Z associated with the combined arrivals of the CMEs first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-11-09T07:24Z and 2025-11-10T09:36Z (see notifications 20251112-AL-004, 20251112-AL-005). The energetic electron flux levels at GOES mentioned above may remain elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-11-06 with possible additional influence from the ongoing CME arrivals associated with the X-class flaring activity from Active Region 14274.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T21:47:07Z
## Message ID: 20251112-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-11-12T18:00Z to 2025-11-12T21:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-12T18:52:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251112-AL-007) and the arrival of the CME with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251111-AL-010, 20251111-AL-011, 20251112-AL-006).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP Update (GOES)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T20:14:23Z
## Message ID: 20251112-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 100 MeV protons exceeded 1 pfu at 2025-11-11T10:20Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-005 and 20251111-AL-007). An additional rise in the proton flux started after 2025-11-12T18:40Z, reaching a maximum value of 5.67 pfu so far. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu at 2025-11-11T17:20Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-003 and 20251111-AL-008). An additional rise in the proton flux started after 2025-11-12T17:30Z, reaching a maximum value of 819 pfu so far. This additional enhancement of the ongoing SEP event is likely associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-12T18:52:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251112-AL-007) and the arrival of CME: 2025-11-11T10:23Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-010, 20251111-AL-011, and 20251112-AL-006).
NASA Spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-11T10:20:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-11-11T10:20:00-SEP-001) is associated with an X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004, 20251111-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T19:30:55Z
## Message ID: 20251112-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-11-12T18:52Z.
The shock is likely caused by CME with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251111-AL-010, 20251111-AL-011, and 20251112-AL-006). Magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T12:58:28Z
## Message ID: 20251112-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251111-AL-011). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 39 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2025-11-12T07:30Z and 2025-11-12T18:26Z (average arrival 2025-11-12T12:02Z) for 100% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-11-12T11:52Z and 2025-11-12T23:47Z (average arrival 2025-11-12T16:50Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 7-9 range (strong to extreme).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
The CME event with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Juno at 2025-11-21T12:00Z (glancing blow), BepiColombo at 2025-11-11T18:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-12T13:16Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-12T11:51Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notifications 20251111-AL-010 and 20251111-AL-011).
This CME event (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001) is associated with an X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004 and 20251111-AL-006).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/Detailed_results_20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T03:13:19Z
## Message ID: 20251112-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 8.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2025-11-12T00:00Z to 2025-11-12T03:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-11T22:11:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251111-AL-012) and the combined arrival of the CME with ID 2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20251109-AL-003) and the CME with ID 2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251110-AL-006, 20251110-AL-013).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-12T00:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-11-12T00:59:00-MPC-001 (see notification 20251112-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T03:05:42Z
## Message ID: 20251112-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 8.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2025-11-12T00:00Z to 2025-11-12T03:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T02:35:45Z
## Message ID: 20251112-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-11-12T01:48Z.
NASA spacecraft at the orbits near STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-12T01:48:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-11-12T01:48:00-SEP-001) is associated with X5.1 flare from AR 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004, 20251111-AL-006), and O-type CME with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251111-AL-010, 20251111-AL-011).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T02:02:43Z
## Message ID: 20251112-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-11-12T01:48Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T00:49:56Z
## Message ID: 20251112-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-11-12T00:59Z.
The activity is associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-11-11T22:11:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251111-AL-012), and with the combined arrival of the CME with ID 2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20251109-AL-003) and the CME with ID 2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251110-AL-006, 20251110-AL-013).
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T22:47:51Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-012
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-11-11T22:11Z.
The shock is likely caused by the combined arrival of CME with ID 2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20251109-AL-003) and CME with ID 2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251110-AL-006, 20251110-AL-013). Strong magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T15:21:49Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-011
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-11T10:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~1856 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 22/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-11T18:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-12T13:16Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-12T11:51Z, and STEREO A at 2025-11-12T14:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-11-21T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-12T20:16Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-8 (strong to severe).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001) is associated with X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004 and 20251111-AL-006).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (missions near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T14:57:17Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-010
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-11T10:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~1856 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 22/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
NASA spacecraft near the Earth can be affected. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001) is associated with X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004 and 20251111-AL-006).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (SOHO)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T13:37:10Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channel exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-11-11T11:24Z.
NASA spacecraft at L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-11T11:24:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-11-11T11:24:00-SEP-001) is associated with X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004 and 20251111-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (GOES)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T13:23:49Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2025-11-11T09:45Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-11T09:45:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-11-11T10:20:00-SEP-001) is associated with X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004 and 20251111-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (GOES)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T13:17:05Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 100 MeV protons exceeds 1 pfu starting at 2025-11-11T10:20Z.
NASA Spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-11-11T10:20:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-11-11T10:20:00-SEP-001) is associated with X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004 and 20251111-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X5.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T12:59:52Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-11-11T09:49Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-11-11T10:04Z.
Flare intensity: X5.1 class.
Source region: N27W27 (Active Region 14274) (based on GOES imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T10:29:33Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 100 MeV protons exceeds 1 pfu starting at 2025-11-11T10:20Z.
NASA Spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T10:06:12Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-11-11T10:01Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T09:53:33Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2025-11-11T09:45Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T02:52:50Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-10T00:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~560 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 105/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-10T00:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-11-12T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-10T00:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T01:50:08Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-11-10T13:08Z.
Estimated speed: ~630 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 0/23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-11-10T13:08:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, and Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-11T07:15Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-12T20:35Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-12T18:49Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-13T06:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-10T13:08:00-CME-001):
