Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: Report
Message ID: 20250402-7D-001
Issue Time: 2025-04-02T17:59Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for March 26, 2025 - April 01, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-02T17:59:16Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-03-26T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-04-01T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250402-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 16 M-class flares, 2 O-type CMEs, and 8 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the flank of the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-03-28T15:24Z would reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-31T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), with a possible Kp index of 3-5 (below minor to minor) (see notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, 20250329-AL-002, and 20250330-AL-001). The arrival of this CME may have been detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2025-03-31T10:16Z.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-03-26T09:49Z Juice at 2025-03-29T00:00Z (minor impact), Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-27T12:00Z (minor impact).
2025-03-28T15:24Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-29T15:05Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-04-01T14:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-04-02T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-04-01T04:00Z (glancing blow), and Juno at 2025-04-10T03:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250330-AL-001).
2025-03-29T23:12Z Europa Clipper at 2025-04-05T04:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-04-05T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-04-04T14:00Z (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-31T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250330-AL-004).
2025-03-30T01:36Z Europa Clipper at 2025-04-05T04:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-04-05T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-04-04T14:00Z (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-31T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250330-AL-004).
2025-03-30T08:36Z Juice at 2025-03-31T22:43Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-30T18:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20250330-AL-003).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=6.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 6.33 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-03-26T18:00Z-21:00Z (see notifications 20250326-AL-002 and 20250326-AL-003). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-03-26 which reached maximum sustained speeds of approximately 865 km/s. The arrival of this coronal hole high speed stream may have also been detected by STEREO A IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments on 2025-03-28.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-28T14:00Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-001, 20250330-AL-002, and 20250401-AL-003). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-03-26. The energetic electron flux levels remain elevated through the end of the reporting period.
A solar energetic particle event was detected by SOHO and GOES during the reporting period. At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-03-31T10:09Z (see notifications 20250331-AL-002 and 20250331-AL-003). At GOES, the integral flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-03-31T11:05Z (see notifications 20250331-AL-002 and 20250331-AL-003). This SEP event was likely associated with the X1.1 flare peaking at 2025-03-28T15:20Z from Active Region 14046 (N06E80) and the associated O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2025-03-28T15:24Z. The solar energetic particle event was further enhanced by the arrival of the O-type CME mentioned above detected as an interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-03-31T10:16Z (see notification 20250331-AL-004). For the remainder of the reporting period, the particle environment at SOHO and GOES remained elevated above their respective thresholds. At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons was elevated but below the threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle event and elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-03-28T15:24Z ~1838 O -86/19 37 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-03-26T15:49Z ~644 C -124/-43 16 SOHO
2025-03-27T22:25Z ~856 C -43/-53 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-29T23:12Z ~835 C -86/-19 18 SOHO
2025-03-30T01:36Z ~547 C -85/-38 42 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-30T02:24Z ~715 C NONE(POS)/36 10 SOHO
2025-03-30T04:38Z ~986 C -70/-59 25 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-30T08:36Z ~1154 O 87/30 25 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-31T00:00Z ~548 C -65/-31 12 SOHO
2025-04-01T18:24Z ~662 C NONE(POS)/20 45 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-04-02T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-04-08T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the outlook period. There are currently numerous Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 14046 (N05E13) and 14048 (S16E33) have produced significant flares and may continue to produce flares throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low to moderate levels throughout the outlook period. A coronal hole currently centered around N10W15 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may be geoeffective starting around 2025-04-04.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-01T18:23:24Z
## Message ID: 20250401-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-04-01T17:29Z.
The cause of this shock is still under analysis. Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm may be expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-01T14:34:59Z
## Message ID: 20250401-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-04-01T10:05Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-03-28T14:00Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-001, 20250330-AL-002) are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-03-26. The solar wind observed at L1 reached a maximum speed of approximately 845 km/s and is currently around 400 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M5.6 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-01T11:28:21Z
## Message ID: 20250401-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-04-01T06:37Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-04-01T06:46Z.
Flare intensity: M5.6 class.
Source region: N03E29 (Active Region 14046) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-01T06:54:50Z
## Message ID: 20250401-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-04-01T06:45Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-31T12:01:11Z
## Message ID: 20250331-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-03-31T10:16Z.
The shock is likely caused by the CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, 20250329-AL-002, 20250330-AL-001). Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm possible.
Activity ID: 2025-03-31T10:16:00-IPS-001.
## Notes:
The shock likely resulted in further enhancement of the already elevated >10 MeV proton flux at GOES (geosynchronous orbit), which briefly exceeded 10 pfu at 2025-03-31T11:05Z, and of one of the (already elevated) >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO, which briefly exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV at 2025-03-31T10:09Z (see notification 20250331-AL-003).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (GOES, SOHO)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-31T11:38:24Z
## Message ID: 20250331-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO (at L1) and GOES (near Earth environment). The flux of one of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO briefly exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV at 2025-03-31T10:09Z and the flux of > 10 MeV protons at GOES exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-03-31T11:05Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude and high-inclination LEO orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-31T11:05:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event is likely associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003) and CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, 20250329-AL-002, 20250330-AL-001) which may have arrived at L1 at 2025-03-31T10:16Z (analysis of the developing arrival signature is in progress).
Modeled solar energetic particle event was predicted by the HESPERIA RELeASE model starting at 2025-03-30T21:50Z (see notification 20250330-AL-005 and 20250331-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-31T11:14:36Z
## Message ID: 20250331-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2025-03-31T11:05Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP Prediction
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-31T01:39:14Z
## Message ID: 20250331-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event forecasted near L1 orbit by the HESPERIA RELeASE model starting at 2025-03-31T02:17Z. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels may exceed 10^(-1) pfu/MeV within next few hours.
NASA spacecraft at the L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-31T02:17:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
Earlier modeled solar energetic particle event was detected by the HESPERIA RELeASE (ACE/EPAM) model starting at 2025-03-30T21:50Z (see notification 20250330-AL-005)
This modeled SEP event (2025-03-30T21:50:00-SEP-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003) and CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, 20250329-AL-002, 20250330-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP Prediction
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-30T22:09:49Z
## Message ID: 20250330-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event forecasted near L1 orbit by the HESPERIA RELeASE model starting at 2025-03-30T21:50Z. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels may exceed 10^(-1) pfu/MeV within next few hours.
NASA spacecraft at the L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-30T21:50:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-03-30T21:50:00-SEP-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003) and CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, 20250329-AL-002, 20250330-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-30T21:25:11Z
## Message ID: 20250330-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-29T23:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~835 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -86/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-29T23:12:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-30T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~547 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -85/-38 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-30T01:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The combined flank of the CMEs will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-04-05T04:00Z, Lucy at 2025-04-05T12:00Z, Mars at 2025-04-04T14:00Z, and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-31T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-03-29T23:12:00-CME-001, 2025-03-30T01:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-03-29T23:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.9 flare from Active Region 4048 (S15E85) with ID 2025-03-29T22:38:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-29T23:00Z.
This CME event (2025-03-30T01:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.5 flare from Active Region 4048 (S15E80) with ID 2025-03-30T01:19:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-30T01:48Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-30T16:26:03Z
## Message ID: 20250330-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-30T08:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1154 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 87/30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-30T08:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice and Solar Orbiter (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-03-31T22:43Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-30T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-30T08:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-30T14:31:01Z
## Message ID: 20250330-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, most recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-29T09:15Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-03-28T14:00Z are caused by the high speed stream starting on 2025-03-26 and reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 840 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 420 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-30T01:59:22Z
## Message ID: 20250330-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, and 20250329-AL-002). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2025-04-10T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Simulations also estimate that the CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow) and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-29T15:05Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-04-01T14:00Z, Lucy at 2025-04-02T12:00Z, and Mars at 2025-04-01T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-31T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
CME parameters are (O-type):
Start time of the event: 2025-03-28T15:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1838 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -86/19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-29T01:32:52Z
## Message ID: 20250329-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250329-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-04-07T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo (glancing blow) and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-03-31T16:18Z, Mars at 2025-03-31T09:42Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-29T12:38Z. The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-29T16:00Z and Lucy at 2025-04-01T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-31T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
CME parameters are (O-type):
Start time of the event: 2025-03-28T15:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1942 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 48 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -81/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-29T00:53:59Z
## Message ID: 20250329-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-28T15:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1942 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 48 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -81/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo (glancing blow), and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-03-31T16:18Z, Mars at 2025-03-31T09:42Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-29T12:38Z. The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-29T16:00Z, and Lucy at 2025-04-01T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-31T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-28T18:55:47Z
## Message ID: 20250328-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-28T15:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1942 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 48 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -81/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
NASA spacecraft in the vicinity of Mars, Jupiter and the following spacecraft including Europa Clipper, Lucy, and OSIRIS-APEX may be affected. This event is still developing and updates will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001) is associated with an X1.1 flare from Active Region 14046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002 and 20250328-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-28T15:51:24Z
## Message ID: 20250328-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-03-28T15:14Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-28T15:36:50Z
## Message ID: 20250328-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-03-28T14:57Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-03-28T15:20Z.
Flare intensity: X1.1 class.
Source region: N06E80 (Active Region 14046) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-28T14:30:31Z
## Message ID: 20250328-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-28T14:00Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the high speed stream starting on 2025-03-26, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 840 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 640 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-26T21:27:27Z
## Message ID: 20250326-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-26T18:00Z to 2025-03-26T21:00Z.
The storm is caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which first started on 2025-03-26.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for March 19, 2025 - March 25, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-26T19:44:22Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-03-19T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-03-25T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250326-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 2 M-class flares, 7 O-type CMEs, and 10 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-03-19T02:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-03-22T16:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250319-AL-002).
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2025-03-21T16:00Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-03-23T07:30Z (glancing blow), Kp index 5-7 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250321-AL-002).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-03-23T23:30Z.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-03-19T02:24Z BepiColombo at 2025-03-20T21:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-03-24T06:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-03-25T00:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-03-24T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250319-AL-002).
2025-03-19T04:09Z Juice at 2025-03-21T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250319-AL-003).
2025-03-19T23:24Z Juice at 2025-03-21T12:11 (see notification 20250320-AL-001).
2025-03-19T23:48Z Psyche at 2025-03-29T00:00Z (glancing blow), Juice at 2025-03-22T08:21Z, and STEREO A at 2025-03-22T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250320-AL-002).
2025-03-20T17:12Z Psyche at 2025-03-29T18:00Z (glancing blow), Juice at 2025-03-22T11:37Z, and STEREO A at 2025-03-23T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250320-AL-003).
2025-03-21T16:00Z BepiColombo at 2025-03-22T05:02Z, Lucy at 2025-03-24T19:34Z, Mars at 2025-03-24T21:26Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-03-25T03:30Z (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-22T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250321-AL-002).
2025-03-22T15:48Z Juno at 2025-04-07T12:00Z (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-24T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250322-AL-003).
2025-03-23T13:25Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-25T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250323-AL-001).
2025-03-25T15:23Z Juno at 2025-04-07T18:00Z (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-26T23:15Z (see notification 20250326-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-03-22T00:00Z-03:00Z (see notifications 20250322-AL-001 and 20250322-AL-002). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-03-21 associated with the interplanetary shock at 2025-03-21T15:30Z, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 520 km/s.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 1000 pfu for the entire reporting period. The energetic electron flux was elevated but below the threshold of 1000 pfu on 2025-03-21, likely due to the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-03-21 mentioned above.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at near background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low this reporting period.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-03-19 20:21:00 20:47:00 20:40:00 M1.5 N16W36 ( 14031 )
2025-03-21 15:34:00 16:23:00 15:58:00 M1.2 S17W33 ( 14028 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-03-21T16:00Z ~1990 O -22/-24 19 SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-03-19T01:25Z ~1188 O NONE(POS)/27 14 SOHO
2025-03-19T04:09Z ~666 C 122/25 29 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-19T23:24Z ~1132 O 100/2 39 SOHO
2025-03-19T23:48Z ~627 C 73/8 28 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-20T17:12Z ~1043 O 75/1 27 SOHO
2025-03-21T13:25Z ~655 C NONE(POS)/-40 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-22T08:12Z ~673 C -116/56 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-22T14:00Z ~1229 O -45/63 15 SOHO
2025-03-22T14:48Z ~585 C -52/50 35 SOHO
2025-03-22T15:48Z ~1084 O -147/-12 20 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-23T10:00Z ~620 C NONE(POS)/31 27 SOHO
2025-03-23T13:25Z ~653 C -136/-11 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-24T15:45Z ~938 C NONE(POS)/-21 11 SOHO
2025-03-24T19:24Z ~754 C NONE(POS)/-25 10 SOHO
2025-03-25T04:24Z ~763 C -99/39 18 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-25T15:23Z ~1374 O -102/-24 24 STEREO A, SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-03-26T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-04-01T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently three numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14043 (approximately N11E58) was numbered on 2025-03-26 and has produced C-class flaring and an M-class flare, and may produce additional flaring during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low to moderate levels during the outlook period. Geomagnetic activity reached moderate levels with Kp = 5.67 during the synoptic periods 2025-03-26T12:00Z-15:00Z and 2025-03-26T15:00Z-18:00Z. This increase in geomagnetic activity is associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-03-26 (see notifications 20250326-AL-001 and 20250326-AL-002). The energetic electron flux levels at GOES may be elevated above background levels during the outlook period.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-26T15:46:28Z
## Message ID: 20250326-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-26T12:00Z to 2025-03-26T15:00Z.
The storm was caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which first started on 2025-03-26.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-26T01:57:37Z
## Message ID: 20250326-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-25T15:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~1374 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -102/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-25T15:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-26T23:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2025-04-07T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours)
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-25T15:23:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250325_172600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250325_172600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250325_172600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250325_172600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250325_172600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250325_172600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250325_172600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-24T00:56:37Z
## Message ID: 20250324-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-03-23T23:30Z.
The shock may be caused by CME with ID 2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001 (see notification 20250321-AL-002). Some magnetospheric compression and possible geomagnetic storm expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-23T19:21:42Z
## Message ID: 20250323-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-23T13:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~653 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 12 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -136/-11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-23T13:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-25T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-23T13:25:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-22T22:25:01Z
## Message ID: 20250322-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-22T15:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1084 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -147/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-22T15:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2025-04-07T12:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-24T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-22T15:48:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250322_182300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250322_182300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250322_182300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250322_182300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250322_182300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250322_182300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250322_182300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-22T13:21:12Z
## Message ID: 20250322-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
A space weather storm recently affected Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-22T00:00Z to 2025-03-22T03:00Z.
The storm was caused by a passage of a CME, possibly embedded in a coronal hole high speed stream which started on 2025-03-21. Analysis of this signature is ongoing.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-22T00:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-03-21T15:30:00-IPS-001.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-22T03:36:25Z
## Message ID: 20250322-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-22T00:00Z to 2025-03-22T03:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Lucy, Mars, Europa Clipper, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-21T23:09:07Z
## Message ID: 20250321-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-21T16:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~1990 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -22/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, Lucy, Mars, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-22T05:02Z, Lucy at 2025-03-24T19:34Z, Mars at 2025-03-24T21:26Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-03-25T03:30Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-22T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-23T07:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-21T11:58:38Z
## Message ID: 20250321-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-03-21T10:10Z.
The shock may be caused by CME with ID 2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001 (see notification 20250318-AL-001). Some magnetospheric compression and possible geomagnetic storm expected. Analysis of this signature is ongoing.
Activity ID: 2025-03-21T10:10:00-IPS-001.
## Notes:
This arrival signature is first detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 at 2025-03-21T01:42Z characterized by a magnetic field rise from 3 to 9 nT, and rapid increase in solar wind velocity from 380 km/s to 430 km/s.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-20T23:49:12Z
## Message ID: 20250320-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-20T17:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1043 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 75/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-20T17:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow), Juice, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-03-29T18:00Z, Juice at 2025-03-22T11:37Z, and STEREO A at 2025-03-23T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-20T17:12:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250320_203400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250320_203400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250320_203400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-03-20T17:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C4.4 flare from near the vicinity of Active Region 14022 (N08W75) with ID 2025-03-20T16:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-20T17:10Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-20T21:09:18Z
## Message ID: 20250320-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-19T23:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~627 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 73/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-19T23:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow), Juice, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-03-29T00:00Z, Juice at 2025-03-22T08:21Z, and STEREO A at 2025-03-22T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-19T23:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-20T19:07:36Z
## Message ID: 20250320-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-19T23:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1132 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 100/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-19T23:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice. The leading edge of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-03-21T12:11Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-19T23:24:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-03-19T23:24:00-CME-001) is associated with a C6.0 flare from an Active Region beyond the southwest limb (~S23W90) with ID 2025-03-19T23:04:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-20T00:07Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-19T22:24:44Z
## Message ID: 20250319-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-19T04:09Z.
Estimated speed: ~666 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 122/25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-19T04:09:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-03-21T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-19T04:09:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for March 12, 2025 - March 18, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-19T18:30:11Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-03-12T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-03-18T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250319-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 2 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, and 7 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the combined flank of the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-03-16T21:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-03-20T00:26Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250316-AL-002, 20250318-AL-001).
2025-03-17T03:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-03-20T00:26Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250318-AL-001).
2025-03-17T11:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-03-20T00:26Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250318-AL-001).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-03-15T05:36Z Juice at 2025-03-17T14:58Z (see notification 20250315-AL-002).
2025-03-16T00:12Z Juice at 2025-03-17T23:40Z (see notification 20250316-AL-001).
2025-03-16T21:12Z BepiColombo at 2025-03-17T23:54Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-18T17:41Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-03-22T00:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-03-22T00:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-03-21T20:00Z (glancing blow), and STEREO A at 2025-03-20T13:30Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250316-AL-002, 20250318-AL-001)
2025-03-17T03:24Z BepiColombo at 2025-03-17T23:54Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-18T17:41Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-03-22T00:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-03-22T00:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-03-21T20:00Z (glancing blow), and STEREO A at 2025-03-20T13:30Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250318-AL-001)
2025-03-17T11:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-03-17T23:54Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-18T17:41Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-03-22T00:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-03-22T00:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-03-21T20:00Z (glancing blow), and STEREO A at 2025-03-20T13:30Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250318-AL-001)
2025-03-18T08:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-03-19T03:30Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-03-22T08:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-03-22T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250319-AL-001)
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-03-14T00:00Z to 2025-03-14T03:00Z (see notifications 20250314-AL-001 and 20250314-AL-002). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-03-12 which reached maximum sustained speeds of approximately 580 km/s. The arrival of this coronal hole high speed stream may have also been detected by STEREO A IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments on 2025-03-15.
The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-13T13:10Z (see notifications 20250313-AL-001, 20250315-AL-001, and 20250317-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-03-12. The energetic electron flux levels subsided below the 1000 pfu threshold late on 2025-03-18 and remained near background levels through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-03-14 22:18:00 22:32:00 22:21:00 M1.1 S19E80 ( 14030 )
2025-03-17 19:25:00 19:40:00 19:33:00 M1.0 N25E40 ( 14033 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
NONE
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-03-12T07:00Z ~757 C -121/44 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-13T17:36Z ~698 C -17/27 10 SOHO
2025-03-14T01:55Z ~689 C -74/23 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-15T05:24Z ~1009 O 107/-55 34 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-15T05:36Z ~1113 O 90/-30 27 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-15T19:12Z ~661 C NONE(POS)/41 10 SOHO
2025-03-16T00:12Z ~1213 O 109/-16 31 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-17T20:12Z ~515 C -7/51 17 SOHO
2025-03-18T06:24Z ~509 C -5/41 12 SOHO
2025-03-18T08:36Z ~820 C -58/-20 23 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-03-19T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-03-25T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently eleven numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14030 (S17E04) was the source of an isolated M-class flare during the reporting period and may produce additional flaring throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low to moderate levels throughout the outlook period. Enhancements in geomagnetic activity are possible on or around 2025-03-19 and 2025-03-20 due to the predicted glancing blows from the S-type CMEs first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-03-16T21:12Z, 2025-03-17T03:24Z, and 2025-03-17T11:36Z mentioned above (see notifications 20250316-AL-002 and 20250318-AL-001). An increase in geomagnetic activity may also be possible on 2025-03-22 due to the predicted glancing blow of the S-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-03-19T02:24Z (see notification 20250319-AL-002). An equatorial coronal hole crossing the central meridian (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) on 2025-03-19 may be geoeffective starting around 2025-03-22.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-19T17:31:58Z
## Message ID: 20250319-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-19T02:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~417 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -27/32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-19T02:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo (glancing blow), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-20T21:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-03-24T06:00Z, Lucy at 2025-03-25T00:00Z, and Mars at 2025-03-24T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-22T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-19T02:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Mars)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-19T12:36:45Z
## Message ID: 20250319-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-18T08:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~820 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -58/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-18T08:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-19T03:30Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-03-22T08:00Z, and Mars at 2025-03-22T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-18T08:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (BepiColombo, Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-18T03:01:52Z
## Message ID: 20250318-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250316-AL-002). This CME was simulated together with two other S-type CMEs, with IDs 2025-03-17T03:24:00-CME-001 and 2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow, Mars (glancing blow), and STEREO A (minor impact). The combined leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-18T17:41Z and STEREO A at 2025-03-20T13:30Z, while the flank will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-17T23:54Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-03-22T00:00Z, Lucy at 2025-03-22T00:00Z, Mars at 2025-03-21T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-20T00:26Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
CME parameters are (S-type):
1: Start time of the event: 2025-03-16T21:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~403 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -17/15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-03-17T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~420 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -9/25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-17T03:24:00-CME-001
3: Start time of the event: 2025-03-17T11:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~400 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 30/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001, 2025-03-17T03:24:00-CME-001, 2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-17T16:33:23Z
## Message ID: 20250317-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-17T10:05Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-03-13T13:10Z are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-03-12, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 570 km/s (see notifications 20250313-AL-001 and 20250315-AL-001). The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 370 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-13T13:10:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
This ongoing event is preceded by a radiation belt enhancement first observed at 2025-03-10T11:50Z which is associated with a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-03-08 and reached a maximum speed of approximately 700 km/s (see notifications 20250310-AL-001, 20250310-AL-002, 20250312-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-16T23:49:16Z
## Message ID: 20250316-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-16T21:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~403 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -17/15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-17T23:58Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-03-22T04:00Z, Lucy at 2025-03-22T00:00Z, Mars at 2025-03-21T20:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-18T04:00Z, and STEREO A at 2025-03-20T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the southern flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-19T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-16T15:30:56Z
## Message ID: 20250316-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-16T00:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1213 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 109/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-16T00:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-03-17T23:40Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-03-16T00:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-15T19:21:08Z
## Message ID: 20250315-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-15T05:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1113 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 90/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-15T05:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-03-17T14:50Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-15T05:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-15T16:24:11Z
## Message ID: 20250315-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-15T11:40Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-03-13T13:10Z are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-03-12, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 570 km/s (see notifications 20250313-AL-001). The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 510 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-13T13:10:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
This ongoing event is preceded by a radiation belt enhancement first observed at 2025-03-10T11:50Z which is associated with a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-03-08 and reached a maximum speed of approximately 700 km/s (see notifications 20250310-AL-001, 20250310-AL-002, 20250312-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-14T11:22:41Z
## Message ID: 20250314-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
A space weather storm recently affected Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-14T00:00Z to 2025-03-14T03:00Z.
The storm was caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which first started on 2025-03-12.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-14T03:32:38Z
## Message ID: 20250314-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-14T00:00Z to 2025-03-14T03:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-13T15:34:11Z
## Message ID: 20250313-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-13T13:10Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-03-12, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 560 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 540 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-13T13:10:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
This ongoing event is preceded by a radiation belt enhancement first observed at 2025-03-10T11:50Z which is associated with a high speed stream starting at 2025-03-08T15:00Z (see notifications 20250310-AL-001, 20250310-AL-002, 20250312-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for March 05, 2025 - March 11, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-12T18:57:24Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-03-05T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-03-11T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250312-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 3 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, and 13 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the flank of the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-03-07T22:12Z would reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-11T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), with a possible Kp index of 3-4 (below minor) (see notification 20250308-AL-001). The arrival of this CME may have been detected at L1 by ACE at 2025-03-10T13:44Z.
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-03-05T03:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-07T06:27Z (see notification 20250305-AL-002).
2025-03-05T04:48Z BepiColombo at 2025-03-05T23:00Z (glancing blow).
2025-03-06T03:12Z BepiColombo at 2025-03-06T20:57Z (see notification 20250306-AL-001).
2025-03-07T22:12Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-09T06:49Z (see notification 20250308-AL-001).
2025-03-10T11:36Z Juice at 2025-03-12T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250310-AL-003).
2025-03-11T05:23Z Juice at 2025-03-13T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250311-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.67 occurred during the synoptic periods 2025-03-09T03:00Z-06:00Z and 2025-03-09T09:00Z-12:00Z (see notifications 20250309-AL-001, 20250309-AL-003, and 20250309-AL-004). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-03-08 associated with the interplanetary shock at 2025-03-08T04:48Z (see notification 20250308-AL-002). The arrival of this coronal hole high speed stream may have also been detected by STEREO A IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments on 2025-03-10.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt briefly crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-07T17:35Z (see notifications 20250307-AL-002 and 20250307-AL-003). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2025-02-26 as well as the arrival of the C-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-03-01T18:24Z which was detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2025-03-04T17:10Z in the previous reporting period. The elevated >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES returned to background levels later on 2025-03-07. A second threshold crossing was observed at 2025-03-10T11:50Z due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2025-03-08, which reached maximum sustained speeds of approximately 700 km/s (see notifications 20250310-AL-001 and 20250310-AL-002). The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all near background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-03-07T22:12Z ~1197 O 0/-25 15 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-03-05T03:12Z ~641 C -121/14 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-05T04:48Z ~705 C -108/-35 25 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-05T11:00Z ~539 C 25/51 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-06T03:12Z ~687 C -57/18 11 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-07T02:00Z ~511 C -15/-73 22 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-07T21:49Z ~676 C -17/-57 19 SOHO
2025-03-08T15:36Z ~948 C 36/-34 10 SOHO
2025-03-08T22:24Z ~731 C NONE(POS)/24 21 SOHO
2025-03-09T12:48Z ~680 C -90/55 19 SOHO
2025-03-10T04:36Z ~538 C 24/-57 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-10T11:36Z ~541 C 110/-3 17 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-11T05:23Z ~1141 O 130/-9 18 STEREO A, SOHO
2025-03-11T14:00Z ~1171 O 47/9 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-11T18:24Z ~721 C -119/48 15 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-11T23:24Z ~610 C NONE(POS)/50 10 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-03-12T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-03-18T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently ten numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14026 (approximately S19E85) was numbered on 2025-03-12 and has produced C-class flaring, and may produce additional flaring during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole currently centered around S20W25, as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA and GOES SUVI, may become geoeffective around 2025-03-13. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES may continue to be elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the coronal hole high speed stream from 2025-03-08 previously mentioned in the summary above.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-12T14:31:53Z
## Message ID: 20250312-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, most recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-12T14:15Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-03-10T11:50Z (see notifications 20250310-AL-001 and 20250310-AL-002) are caused by the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-03-08, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 700 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 415 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-11T17:00:25Z
## Message ID: 20250311-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-11T05:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~1141 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 130/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-11T05:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-03-13T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-11T05:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-10T16:47:47Z
## Message ID: 20250310-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-10T11:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~541 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 110/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-10T11:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-03-12T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-10T11:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-10T12:07:30Z
## Message ID: 20250310-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-10T11:50Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-03-08, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 700 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 540 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-10T11:58:05Z
## Message ID: 20250310-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-10T11:50Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-09T12:37:40Z
## Message ID: 20250309-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-09T09:00Z to 2025-03-09T12:00Z.
The storm is likely caused by the high speed stream starting on 2025-03-08.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-09T12:26:06Z
## Message ID: 20250309-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Space weather storm observed in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-09T03:00Z to 2025-03-09T06:00Z.
The storm is likely caused by the high speed stream starting on 2025-03-08.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-09T06:35:42Z
## Message ID: 20250309-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-09T03:00Z to 2025-03-09T06:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-08T18:04:18Z
## Message ID: 20250308-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant magnetic field disturbance detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 at 2025-03-08T04:48Z.
The magnetic field enhancement is caused by the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream with ID 2025-03-08T15:00:00-HSS-001. Some magnetospheric compression and a minor geomagnetic storm expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-08T14:22:11Z
## Message ID: 20250308-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-07T22:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1197 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 0/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-09T06:49Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-11T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-07T18:29:56Z
## Message ID: 20250307-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-07T17:35Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-02-26, reaching sustained maximum speeds of approximately 800 km/s, and the minor arrival of CME with ID 2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20250302-AL-001) which was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-03-04T17:10Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-07T17:42:28Z
## Message ID: 20250307-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-07T17:35Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-06T15:55:55Z
## Message ID: 20250306-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-06T03:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~687 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 11 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -57/18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-06T03:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-06T20:57Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-06T03:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-05T21:25:11Z
## Message ID: 20250305-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-05T03:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~641 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -121/14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-05T03:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-07T06:27Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-05T03:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for February 26, 2025 - March 04, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-05T19:57:06Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-02-26T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-03-04T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250305-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 7 O-type CMEs and 12 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-02-26T06:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-02-28T02:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250226-AL-001).
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2025-03-01T18:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-03-04T16:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250302-AL-001).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-03-04T17:10Z.
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-02-26T06:48Z STEREO A at 2025-02-27T21:08Z and Psyche at 2025-03-04T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250226-AL-001).
2025-02-26T15:12Z Juice at 2025-02-28T20:00Z (glancing blow) and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-28T03:30Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250227-AL-001).
2025-02-26T16:12Z Europa Clipper at 2025-03-03T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-03-03T11:00Z (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-28T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250227-AL-002).
2025-02-27T07:23Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-28T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250227-AL-005).
2025-02-28T17:12Z Juice at 2025-03-02T03:42Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-03-01T22:26Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250228-AL-001).
2025-03-01T18:24Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-03T10:15Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-03-06T18:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-03-06T14:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-03-06T15:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250302-AL-001).
2025-03-04T21:25Z Juice at 2025-03-06T09:45Z and Psyche at 2025-03-12T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250305-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-02-27T09:00Z-12:00Z (see notifications 20250227-AL-003 and 20250227-AL-004). This was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-02-26 with additional influence from the prior arrival of a C-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-02-24T07:00Z detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 at 2025-02-26T05:26Z.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-02T15:10Z (see notifications 20250302-AL-002, 20250302-AL-003, and 20250304-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-02-26, which reached a maximum sustained speed of approximately 800 km/s. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the >15.8-39.8 MeV channel detected at SOHO were elevated but below their respective thresholds at the beginning of the reporting period due to a solar energetic particle event first detected in the previous reporting period at SOHO at 2025-02-25T00:11Z (see notification 20250225-AL-008) and GOES at 2025-02-25T00:20Z (see notifications 20250225-AL-002, 20250225-AL-003). At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-02-25T03:05Z (see notifications 20250225-AL-005, 20250225-AL-006) and decreased to background levels on 2025-02-27. The protons at GOES decreased to background levels on 2025-02-28, and the protons at SOHO decreased to background levels on 2025-03-01. An additional solar energetic particle event was detected at STEREO A during the reporting period. At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-03-01T03:22Z (see notifications 20250301-AL-001, 20250301-AL-002). This SEP event was associated with the O-type CME first detected in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-02-28T17:12Z. The protons at STEREO A decreased to background levels on 2025-03-02.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle event and elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
None Observed
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-02-26T06:48Z ~1575 O 27/-3 11 SOHO
2025-03-01T18:24Z ~566 C -22/-37 38 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-02-26T15:00Z ~648 C 83/-54 27 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-26T15:12Z ~829 C 119/-9 20 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-26T16:12Z ~720 C -48/-27 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-27T07:23Z ~1105 O 144/42 30 STEREO A, SOHO
2025-02-28T17:12Z ~1177 O 121/9 45 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-28T17:24Z ~561 C -24/67 32 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-01T10:00Z ~970 C 1/41 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-02T04:00Z ~1044 O -54/-21 11 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-02T06:24Z ~974 C -55/-20 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-02T09:48Z ~1217 O -54/-23 13 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-02T10:24Z ~683 C 161/51 34 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-03T17:24Z ~845 C NONE(POS)/-66 27 SOHO
2025-03-04T03:48Z ~891 C -45/-67 16 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-04T04:48Z ~1151 O 104/-76 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-04T10:24Z ~537 C -42/-67 16 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-04T18:48Z ~989 C 90/-32 10 SOHO
2025-03-04T21:25Z ~1089 O 80/17 22 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-03-05T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-03-11T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently eight numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 14011 (S19E08) and 14016 (S25E38) were the source of C-class flaring throughout the reporting period and may produce additional flaring during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole currently centered around N10E10 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may be geoeffective starting around 2025-03-09. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES may continue to be elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the high speed stream from the above-mentioned coronal hole.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-05T02:13:02Z
## Message ID: 20250305-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-04T21:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~1089 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 80/17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-04T21:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow) and Juice. The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2025-03-12T12:00Z and the leading edge of the CME May reach Juice at 2025-03-06T09:45Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-04T21:25:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-04T17:43:40Z
## Message ID: 20250304-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux first crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-02T15:10Z. The most recent crossing of the 1000 pfu threshold was at 2025-03-03T18:00Z and the fluxes are currently elevated, but below the threshold.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-02-26, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 800 km/s (see notifications 20250302-AL-002 and 20250302-AL-003). The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 450 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
